For many Chinese after policy change, one kid is still a lot to handle. A second kid might not be a possibility. So what then does happen to China and its economy in the future?
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Chinese citizens greeted the announcement of a "two-child" policy warily, as high costs, career aspirations and rising urbanisation in an increasingly wealthy society mute expectations of a baby boom after the historic change. China's previous "one-child" family planning regime, which Beijing announced Thursday would end after some four decades, has seen arbitrary and often brutal enforcement, including forced abortions and sterilisation of some.
Most families were restricted to only one offspring, but various exemptions applied, and violators who could afford to pay the fines were able to have a second child, or even more. The plan was supposed to save China from a looming population explosion, but now it contributes to a greying of society that will exacerbate labour shortages as the world's second-largest economy fights to maintain growth.
The policy is thought to have prevented an estimated 400 million births in the world's most populous country, where 1.37 billion people live today. Chinese media portrayed the decision to loosen the policy as a victory for both the economy and the people, who have long expressed anger at the controversial policy and its myriad abuses. "The new Five-year Plan should be regarded as a triumph of the people's will, as many policies have echoed long-term appeals," the Global Times, a paper close to the government, wrote following the announcement.
But the change may have been too little too late as many young Chinese, who grew up as single children, see more costs than benefits in having a second child. The announcement was met with a collective shrug by social media users, with the topic in eighth place among trending topics on popular micro-blog site Sina Weibo -- well behind other entertainment news. The site's users were far more interested in celebrity actress Angelababy, who held the number one spot, than making their own.
A survey of more than 150,000 people on Chinese media site Sina Friday morning found that less than 30 percent of respondents would have a second child. The sentiment was widely echoed by social media users, who questioned whether one was truly the loneliest number. While once there may have been pent up demand for more children, experts say that as the country has grown wealthier, couples have increasingly delayed having even one child as they devote more time to other goals, such as building their careers.
Now commentators on popular social media platform Sina Weibo say that even if they wanted a child, they could not afford one. "The country doesn't give any financial support," said one post among many that lamented the costs of having two children. "Apartments are so expensive, now. Who can afford to give birth?" Making more children clearly isn't the solution to China's economic problems, another comment said, adding that instead "maybe we should be working hard to make more money."
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The law
China's family planning law, which limited many couples to having one child only, was formally implemented in the late 1970s as a means of controlling its population, the world's largest. Authorities say that avoiding overpopulation has helped speed China's rapid economic development since then.
At first the rule was one child for all couples. Later on, regulations began to vary and loosen in different parts of the country. In recent years urban couples have generally been allowed only one child, but two if both parents were only children themselves. Rural families were allowed two if the first was a girl, while ethnic minorities were allowed an extra offspring, leading some to dub it a "one and a half child" policy. The policy was long enforced by China's family planning commission, now merged with the health ministry, whose hundreds of thousands of personnel rely on permits, fines and, in some cases, forced sterilisation and late-term abortions.
Forced abortions remain widespread, according to rights groups, especially for unmarried women or for couples under the legal marrying age of 22 for men and 20 for women.
The effects
The government argues that the policy has prevented about 400 million births, keeping the nation's population at roughly 1.37 billion today. But it also led to sex-selective abortions or infanticide targeting girls, because of a centuries-old social preference for boys. Families also became lopsided, with one single child caring for four grandparents and two parents, a significant financial burden for many. Couples whose only child died as an adult, too late for them to have another, were particularly hard hit.
Was the change expected?
China announced an earlier loosening of the policy in 2013, allowing couples where only one was an only child to have a second offspring. Many experts predicted the government would soon be forced to loosen the policy in the face of an ageing population, shrinking workforce and stagnant birth rate.
What happens now?
China's various provinces and regions will be responsible for implementing changes at the local level, but there was no immediate timetable announced on Thursday. Previous instances when the policy was loosened did not lead to major birth explosions, with the 2013 reform a particular example. The latest change applies to far more couples, but raising children is becoming more expensive and in recent years more couples have chosen to forego children altogether.
