After months of political and social turmoil marked by violent protests, the successful conclusion of the general elections in Bangladesh will have come as a sigh of relief not just to the people of Bangladesh but also across the region and the international community. Not only were the elections held within the timeframe promised by the interim government, they were conducted by and large peacefully and most crucially have thrown up a decisive mandate -- one that has been recognised by all parties that took part in the national elections and sets the stage for a peaceful transition of power from the interim government to a duly elected one headed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which during the reign of Sheikh Hasina was the principal opposition party.
The successful conclusion of the election is significant in multiple ways. For one, it promises a period of stability that should help heal the years of political suppression that Sheikh Hasina enforced during her later years as her rule turned increasingly autocratic. But undoubtedly, eyes will be firmly on how the country seeks to take forward its ties with India, the country that helped liberate it from Pakistan. In the wake of its landslide victory, the BNP has signalled that it seeks to reset ties with India and has even extended an invitation to the Government of India to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the new government.
However, sooner or later, both countries will have to reckon with the most obvious contentious issue of all -- former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been granted asylum in India after she fled the country in the wake of youth-led, unending protests demanding her ouster. The BNP and its leaders have stated that the extradition of Hasina to face trial for alleged excesses during her reign remains one of their priorities. The political uncertainty even spilt over into the sports field when the Bangladesh cricket team refused to play in the ongoing ICC trophy and subsequently withdrew from the tournament.
India, on the other hand, might be right in claiming that Hasina, whose government was a long-time ally of India, will not face a fair trial in the country that is hell-bent on holding her accountable for the excesses, including imprisonment and disappearance of political rivals, regulatory capture, and compromising of institutions designed to hold the government to account. In November last year, a special tribunal sentenced her to death, holding her responsible for the deaths of nearly 1,400 student protesters in 2024, while in a separate case, she was sentenced to 21 years in prison on charges of corruption. Ironically, she was tried and convicted by an International Crimes Tribunal, a court that she herself had set up and had used to try political opponents during her years of autocratic rule.
This leaves India with a dilemma: does it prioritise normal relations with Bangladesh, whose cooperation will be crucial at a time when restiveness between India and Bangladesh over lingering border disputes is a tinderbox waiting to be sparked, or does it prioritise the health and safety of its long-time ally? Inevitably, everyone expects that India will choose the latter. However, India will need to deftly navigate the new political environment in order to avoid turning the South Asian country against us, especially given that it also needs to temper the rise of the right-leaning Bangladesh Jamaat e Islami, which, if left unchecked, would take the country even further away from India and towards its ideological partner and separated twin -- Pakistan.
