The Lok Sabha election result in Goa appears to be a tough one to call, especially South Goa, even as political pundits have picked holes in the inherent shortcomings of the Congress on the all-important voting day. While sections of political commentators have gone on a fault-finding spree virtually giving the BJP a clear victory in both seats, the ground reports that are emerging have sent out mixed signals. The 'ifs' and 'buts' continue to dominate narratives leaving enough scope for speculations.
Yes, the Congress fell short of expectations on the final day, after a fierce campaign of nearly a month, but their fate cannot be decided based on the commonly held beliefs that higher voter turnout is a vote against incumbency or a lower vote is a vote against the opposition.
In South Goa, two important parameters are being at the heart of the analysis — Salcete and hinterland. The average voting in Salcete coupled with an increase of 20,000-plus votes in hinterland areas has given an interesting twist to the script. Even after considering the plus and minus of turnout, one cannot conclude how much the BJP will eat into the Salcete vote bank, and how much will Congress pull from areas outside Salcete, including Mormugao.
The Congress certainly lacked the wherewithal on the voting day, and the void could be seen on the ground with booth-level managers and workers not visible in most constituencies. Against this reality, the grand old party and its alliance partners uphold the belief that there is considerable resentment and anger among people that will hold Congress in good stead. This virtually means that Congress has left it on ‘auto-pilot’ mode, without getting into the reality that there was an opportunity to consolidate in strongholds by focusing on voters.
The Congress party may not be wrong to see optimism, every party does that ahead of result to keep the morale up, but the bigger issue is that while the BJP went on a massive damage control drive fire-fighting every negative that came along, the Congress cushioned itself with the sole narrative that people’s anger will be visible in the results.
In North Goa, BJP's Shripad Naik who went into the election as a strong favourite got a shot in the arm when Sattari, a BJP stronghold, registered a massive turnout. The Congress, which does not hold such an advantage in any of the North constituencies, is largely relying on the RGP to eat into the BJP vote. The fact that the Congress has not made any efforts to groom leaders and nurture grass-root workers in the taluka is a different story.
Back in the South, Congress must take some solace in the fact that BJP leaders exuded mixed emotions as voting progressed. Curchorem MLA Nilesh Cabral spoke of how the Church dictated a narrative to its flock, and Nuvem MLA Aleixo Sequeira briefly mentioned how certain priests went beyond their priestly duties. To top it all, Chief Minister Pramod Sawant had to rush to Moti Dongor at Margao MLA Digambar Kamat’s call when he was told that the Muslim voter was turning “hostile”.
The race for the South Goa seat is far from over despite all the loose ends left by Congress. For sure, this election will provide crucial answers on whether people are disenchanted and angry, or whether they have given an endorsement to the development plank of the BJP. June 4 will tell.
