DABOLIM ANALYSIS
Mauvin Godinho may have won his seventh term in the Assembly, including a third in the Dabolim constituency, but a closer analysis will reveal an erosion in his support base over the decade which appears to be benefiting the Congress.
Godinho (BJP), among the seniormost legislators in Goa Assembly, polled 7,594 votes, defeating his nearest Congress rival Capt. Viriato Fernandes (6,024 votes) with a margin of 1,502 votes in a seven-cornered contest. As many as 18,848 of 24,623 electors cast their votes on February 14, which included 408 postal ballots and NOTA (198).
The remaining five candidates in the fray forfeited their deposits, including State NCP President and former minister Jose Philip D’Souza, who finished fifth with 1,037 votes. Premanand Nanoskar, the runner-up in the last two elections on the MGP ticket, contested this time on the AAP symbol but finished third.
Dabolim constituency has a mix of the urban and rural electorate. New Vaddem, Vaddem and Adarshnagar localities come within Mormugao municipal limits and comprise about 55% of the electorate, while Chicalim and Chicolna-Bogmalo Panchayats make up the rural segment.
A micro-analysis of the voting pattern in one of Goa’s smallest constituencies threw up interesting findings. Godinho saw a slender 1% negative swing in his vote share, compared to 2017 when he had garnered 41.5%. In fact, the winner’s vote share has been gradually eroding since 2012, when he had polled 49% of the votes, making it a slump of about 8% over the last decade.
On the other hand, the Congress gamble of fielding Capt. Fernandes appears to have paid off, as the party’s vote share shot up by almost 26%, garnering 41% of votes compared to Francisco Nunes who had polled 15% in 2017. But the huge swing was not enough for the ex-navy man to beat Godinho at the finishing line.
URBAN SEGMENT
Godinho performed better in the urban segment of the Dabolim constituency with a slender 1.5% swing in his favour compared to 2017 and a lead of 861 votes over Capt. Fernandes. Merces Vaddem, Lake and Adarshnagar areas gave him a crucial lead of 831 votes. The support extended by Kritesh Gaonkar, who polled 800 votes in 2017 as an NCP candidate, appears to have paid off.
However, contrary to expectations, the Congress candidate managed to swing 20% of the urban electorate to vote for the ‘hand’, polling 3,205 votes (31.5%) compared to 11.5% polled by Nunes in 2017.
The biggest loser was Nanoskar, who personally lost about 18% of his vote-share, which constitutes almost half of his support base. That these perceived anti-Godinho voters gravitated towards Capt. Fernandes appears obvious.
The 2022 contest was neck-and-neck in seven booths of the densely-populated New Vaddem locality, where Godinho led Capt. Fernandes by a meagre 30 votes.
RURAL SEGMENT
Though Godinho maintained his hold over the rural segment, it was here that a massive negative swing was evident.
Godinho’s vote-share of 45% in 2017 crashed to 36% this time even though he managed to squeeze a 707-vote lead. He had polled 52% of votes in 2012. This huge slump of 16% vote share in his stronghold over the last two elections will worry BJP strategists.
Here again, Congress saw a huge surge in its voter base with a 6% swing in its favour. Nanoskar’s support base was reduced to half in the rural segment as well, polling 11% of the votes compared to 22% in 2017. Capt. Fernandes led Godinho by 60 odd votes in the two booths in Chicalim village, however, the latter’s stronghold in the predominantly migrant-dominated Alto Dabolim area remained intact and helped him take a crucial 707-vote lead. The influence of BJP satrap Kamala Prasad Yadav over the electorate in this area was evident.
The 2022 election saw Godinho lose favour with the electorate in Chicolna-Bogmalo. Capt. Fernandes led by 66 votes in the smallest segment of the constituency that polled 1,374 votes. In fact, the writing for Godinho was on the wall over the last two elections with a steady decline of vote-share in the village. The 63% share in 2012 had reduced drastically to 33% in 2017. While his vote share remained largely intact this time, unity in the opposition camp with ex-ZP Vasant Gopi Naik supporting the INC candidate proved to be the catalyst.
GODINHO’S TACTIC
In the final analysis, it was Godinho’s “personal voters”, his pan-constituency larger-than-life image, and the performance of the BJP government that saw him through.
But the exponential erosion in his support base, particularly in New Vaddem and the rural segment, may call for introspection by the BJP.
For the Congress, the huge swing in its favour marshalled by Capt. Fernandes could be a reason to smile even in defeat.
[The writer is a law student based in Vasco]
