Visible anti-incumbency on the ground, seasoned Khalap in opposite corner and presence of Parab in the third corner posing challenge for Shripad
PANAJI
A bastion of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), ever since it arrived on the State's political centre-stage in 1999, the North Goa parliamentary seat this time could be a tough test for its incumbent Shripad Naik and repeating its electoral domination over the Congress, its likely immediate rival, in the three talukas of Pernem, Bicholim and Sattari which account for seven of the 20 assembly segments would be crucial.
Between these three 'new conquest' talukas, Naik had garnered a massive lead of 60,000-plus votes over the Congress' Girish Chodankar in the 2019 election. Repeating that performance on May 7 is posing a challenge to the saffron party's election machine for multiple reasons -- visible anti-incumbency on the ground, seasoned Ramakant Khalap in the opposite corner and the presence of RGP's Manoj Parab in the third corner.
In Pernem taluka, where there are two assembly segments of Mandrem and Pernem (reserved), Naik had garnered a whopping 20,000-vote surplus over Chodankar in 2019 -- 19,684 votes to be precise. Achieving that kind of a domination this time around, many pundits say, is hard to foresee, given that Pernem is the political home of Naik's rival Khalap: he had debuted as MLA from Mandrem, winning the bye-election held there following the death of Goa's first chief minister Bahusaheb Bandodkar and then went on to win the seat at successive elections until he lost for the first time in 1994.
Further east in the Bicholim-Sattari area too, Naik with his sterling performance in the five assembly segments -- Bicholim, Mayem, Sanquelim, Poriem and Valpoi -- had virtually punched Chodankar out of the competition in 2019.
Changes in electoral math
These five assembly constituencies had delivered a massive lead of 41,000-plus votes to Naik but the presence of the RGP's Parab in the fray and Khalap's own political reach in the region drawing from his years in the leadership role of the MGP, has the potential of throwing the electoral math far from what it was in 2019.
Bicholim-Sattari is where Parab cut his political teeth with a performance in the 2022 assembly elections that made many political observers take notice. He hails from Bicholim and had contested from Valpoi and although he ended up runner-up by a wide margin behind Health Minister Vishwajit Rane, the sizable chunk of 6,377 votes he pocketed had impressed many.
Political analysts are throwing their lot with Parab garnering substantial support from the younger electorate, enough to muddy the electoral math for both Naik and Khalap.
Nonetheless, the fact that both Chief Minister Pramod Sawant and Rane Jr hail from this region cannot be discounted. The top two leaders will be directing the BJP's election machine here to ensure Naik garners maximum votes in all the five assembly segments.
Old conquest talukas
of Bardez, Tiswadi
The central part of the North Goa constituency which comprises of 'old conquest' talukas of Bardez and Tiswadi, accounts for more than half of the entire constituency and has as many as 12 assembly segments -- seven in Bardez and five in Tiswadi.
It is a region which has been electorally more friendly to the Congress, relatively, in the past, whether in the Lok Sabha or assembly elections.
In 2019, for instance, Tiswadi was the only taluka where the Congress' Chodankar ended up in the green with a slender 1,590 vote lead over Naik, in all its five assembly segments put together. Given the political churning over the last five years, including the Congress v/s BJP equation in the 2022 assembly polls, political pundits are betting on Congress' Khalap doing better than Chodankar fared in 2019 here. RGP's Parab could also weigh in the equation here with Viresh Borkar of his party representing the St Andre seat.
Bardez and its seven assembly segments could be where the battle is fought tooth and nail. With the Congress and its INDIA allies making a concerted effort to battle the BJP's domination here, the tussle for North Goa is therefore more likely to be a tougher, exciting battle rather than a lame, one-sided one as previously thought.
Which side is the
wind blowing?
In 2019, both BJP's Naik and Chodankar matched up almost evenly in two of the seven constituencies -- Siolim and Aldona. In four others -- Tivim, Mapusa, Saligao and Porvorim -- Naik got a lead of 2,000-plus in each. In the eighth constituency of Calangute, Chodankar ended up scoring a surplus of 2,500-plus votes over Naik's tally.
Also the fact cannot be discounted that Bardez delivered a shocking 4-3 verdict in favour of the Congress in the 2022 assembly elections, even if it was aided by the poll-eve switch by Michael Lobo.
Overall, it may be too early to definitely say which way the wind is blowing or it will stay in the same direction until polling day. The effectiveness of the BJP's organisational setup aided and abetted by the fact that it is in power cannot be ignored for its capacity to quick-fix electoral weaknesses.
Nonetheless, while BJP and Naik wear the winnability cloak for the North Goa seat as they begin to run the race, Congress' Khalap and his INDIA bloc can well be counted to make a fight of it with the RGP playing the role of the wildcard.
