of the various exit polls conducted, the Congress can draw hope from only one – India TV CVoter. The results of this poll show wide variations with the BJP winning anything between 15 to 21 seats and the Congress getting 12 to 18. Surprisingly, the polls shows the Aam Aadmi Party gaining anything between 0 to 4 seats with 2 to 8 constituencies going to others, which would include MGP, GFP, GSM, NCP, GSP and independents. Hope for the Congress lies in the prediction that it can win up to 18 seats and practically all might come at a loss to the BJP. The wide margin gives one an indication of how difficult it is to predict the results of the 2017 Assembly polls. While the MGP is a strong contender with its leader, Sudin Dhavalikar making a strong bid for the chief minister’s chair, in the national scheme of things the party is considered as ‘others’, which is not only unfair, but reflects on the poor understanding pollsters have of this tiny state.
What is clear, though from all the polls is that the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party with about 18-plus seats, which is much lower than the 24 that the party hopes to win. The last election returned the best figures for the BJP and 2017 will restore some equilibrium vis-à-vis the Congress. Being the single largest party is almost like winning the polls provided there is enough fragmentation in the opposition. If the March 11 results play out like the exit polls, then the MGP will have to fall back on its traditional role of playing king maker. To become king the MGP requires a minimum of at least eight to nine seats which seems more unlikely, especially in light of the numbers thrown up by the exit polls.
The general precedent in the State is for the Governor to invite the single largest party to form government. Since 1989, the first election after Goa was declared a State, there have been only two occasions when a political party won a simple majority of 21 seats. In the rest of the cases governments were cobbled together with the help of smaller parties and independent candidates. This is one of the reasons why the MGP has always been in government since 1999 and has traditionally played the role of king maker. This time it chose to go it alone knowing fully well that it can always fall back and play king maker if it does not attain critical mass to form government with outside support. The exit polls have predicted one thing – Goa is difficult to predict and second, the State is heading for a bout of instability, especially if the Congress goes past the 15 mark.
