Nifty ended the week with a gain of around 0.6%, helped by buying in IT, auto, and banking shares. The index came close to its record high of 26,277, last touched on 27 September 2024, when it reached 26,246.65 on Thursday. Investors will now look for a breakout above this level when markets reopen on Monday, especially with several important global and domestic developments expected in the coming days.
However, the week ended on a weaker note. On Friday, Nifty slipped 124 points, or 0.47%, to close at 26,068.15.
According to Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart, global factors will guide the market this week as there are no major economic announcements expected in India. He said the market will be more sensitive to international news, currency moves, and foreign investor activity. Key US data such as Core PPI, retail sales, and the October PCE inflation report will be important indicators. Higher-than-expected numbers may push US bond yields up and strengthen the dollar, which often leads to foreign investors withdrawing money from Indian markets. The Thanksgiving holiday in the US is also likely to reduce global liquidity.
1) Global Market Direction
Indian markets will likely follow cues from the US, where major indices ended with strong gains on Friday. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said there may be “room for further adjustment” in interest rates, hinting at possible support for another rate cut next month. His remarks, reported by the Associated Press, lifted US markets.
The Dow rose 1.08% to 46,245.40, the S&P 500 gained 0.98% to 6,602.99, and the Nasdaq moved up 0.88% to 22,273.10.
2) Corporate Updates
Several stocks will trade ex-dividend this week, including Ingersoll-Rand (India), Power Finance Corporation, Shyamkamal Investments, AK Capital Services, and Meera Industries.
HDFC Asset Management Company and Thyrocare Technologies will trade ex-bonus, with record dates on Wednesday, 26 November, and Friday, 28 November, to determine eligible shareholders.
Infosys will also close its Rs 18,000 crore share buyback offer on Wednesday, 26 November.
3) FII and DII Investment Trends
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers last week, selling Indian equities worth Rs 188 crore. On Friday alone, they sold shares worth Rs 1,766.05 crore.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset this trend, buying shares worth Rs 3,161.61 crore.
4) Technical View
Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Equity Research at Centrum Broking, said Nifty continues to form higher highs and higher lows, but faces resistance around 26,200 as profit booking limits gains.
He noted that momentum indicators remain positive on both daily and weekly charts. He expects Nifty to move within 25,800–26,200 in the near term, with the 21-day moving average near 25,840 acting as important support. A move above the recent high may lead to new record levels close to 26,300.
However, he warned that the volatility index rising above 13 is a concern and needs to fall below 12.5 for stronger bullish sentiment.
5) Rupee and Dollar Movement
The Indian rupee continued to weaken, touching a new lifetime low of 89.65 per US dollar on Friday before closing at 89.61. The fall was linked to US sanctions on some Indian companies involved in oil trade with Iran.
The US dollar index has moved back above 100, rising 0.9% over the past week and 2.5% over the last three months. Analysts say the rupee, already down 4.6% this year, may slip further. Anuj Gupta of Ya Wealth Global Research expects the rupee to test the 90 level soon and sees the dollar index possibly rising to 102–103.
6) IPO and Listing Watch
Two companies will list on the exchanges this week. Sudeep Pharma, whose IPO closes on Tuesday, 25 November, is expected to list on Friday, 28 November. Excelsoft Technologies will debut on Wednesday, 26 November. Investors will watch these listings closely following strong recent debuts from companies such as Billionbrains Garage Ventures (Groww), Pine Labs, and PhysicsWallah.
Three SME IPOs will also open this week:
• SSMD Agrotech India will launch on 25 November, aiming to raise Rs 34.09 crore at a price band of Rs 114–121 per share, closing on 27 November.
• Mother Nutri Foods will open on 26 November, targeting Rs 39.59 crore with a price band of Rs 111–117 per share.
• KK Silk Mills will offer shares priced at Rs 36–38 per share.
