The Nifty ended the past week almost unchanged, though the overall mood stayed slightly weak. When trading begins on Monday, several important events in India and abroad are expected to guide market movement.
On Friday, the Nifty rose by 152.70 points, or 0.59%, to close at 26,186.45. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, said the strong rise shows that the upward trend is still in place. He added that the market remains positive in structure and that buying on dips may work well for the medium term. He also said technical indicators show steady buying interest. Resistance is near 26,350, and if the index moves above this level firmly, it could rise towards 26,600.
Here are the main factors likely to influence the market this week:
1. US Federal Reserve meeting
Global markets will closely watch the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The meeting begins on December 9 and ends on December 10, when Chairperson Jerome Powell will also address the media. Investors are expecting a possible 25 basis point rate cut. The Fed’s comments on inflation, jobs and future interest rates will be closely tracked.
2. US market trends
Wall Street ended higher on Friday due to positive economic data and hopes of a rate cut. In September, US consumer spending rose by 0.3%, as expected. Inflation, measured by the PCE Price Index, also rose 0.3% on a monthly basis. On a yearly basis, inflation stood at 2.8%.
As a result, the Nasdaq closed higher at 23,578.10, the Dow Jones ended at 47,955, and the S&P 500 closed at 6,870.40. Indian markets are likely to take cues from these global trends.
3. IPO activity
This will be a busy week for new share issues. Five mainboard IPOs and seven SME IPOs will open, aiming to raise a total of Rs 13,807 crore.
The biggest IPO is ICICI Prudential Asset Management, where promoter Prudential Corporation Holdings will sell nearly 4.9 crore shares. This offer for sale is worth about Rs 10,603 crore and will open on Friday, December 12.
Other mainboard IPOs include Corona Remedies, Wakefit Innovations, Park Medi World and Nephrocare Health Services. SME IPOs include Riddhi Display Equipments, Prodocs Solutions, K. V. Toys India, Shipwaves Online, Unisem Agritech, Pajson Agro India and Ashwini Container Movers.
Several SME issues will also close this week. On the listing front, Vidya Wires, Aequs and Meesho are expected to debut on the mainboard, along with nine SME companies.
4. FII and DII activity
Foreign institutional investors remained cautious and sold shares worth Rs 439 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors continued to buy and invested Rs 4,189 crore. FII activity will remain important for both market direction and the rupee.
5. Technical outlook
Rupak De of LKP Securities said the recent rise after the policy decision has strengthened the positive trend. The Nifty is holding above its 21-day EMA, which is a good sign. On the hourly chart, the index has moved out of a narrow range, showing growing confidence among traders.
The RSI also shows strong momentum. In the short term, the Nifty could move towards 26,300–26,440. Support is seen between 26,060 and 26,000. Buying on dips may remain the preferred strategy as long as the index stays above 26,000.
6. Rupee against the dollar
On Friday, the rupee ended 6 paise lower at 89.95 against the US dollar after the RBI cut interest rates for the first time in six months. Currency traders said the rate cut may put pressure on the rupee. However, support may come from the RBI’s plan to buy government bonds worth up to Rs 1 lakh crore and a USD 5 billion dollar swap deal.
Experts said these steps will help improve liquidity and reduce pressure on the currency after the rupee’s recent fall.
7. Corporate actions
Several stocks will be in focus due to corporate actions this week. December 9 is the record date for the rights issue of Deccan Gold Mines. Friday is the record date for the 5:1 stock split of Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities. Bharat Rasayan will have both a 1:1 bonus issue and a 5:1 stock split on the same day. Nureca and VLS Finance will also have record dates for their share buybacks on Friday.
