The reputed Lancet journal of medicine, in a study released over the weekend has estimated that India’s total fertility rate -- the total number of children born to a woman over her lifespan -- has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time down from 6.2 it was in 1950 to around 1.9 where it currently stands.
The study has also estimated that the total fertility rate is on an irreversible downward trend and will fall further to 1.3 by the year 2050 and to 1.04 by the year 2100. The study is in line with the findings of the National Family Health Survey - 5 which estimated that India’s TFR stood at 2.0 as of 2021 while also predicting a declining trend.
The findings of the study have provoked varying reactions from across the board with the reactions ranging from the alarmists calling for government intervention to encourage couples to have more children to others saying that the falling TFR will only bode well for the country both from a standard of living and environmental point of view.
To be sure, a falling TFR is only a signal for population changes well into the future and for the next few decades India’s population is going to continue to grow as owing to past population growth more and more women continue to enter the age of fertility.
As an example, China achieved a TFR of less than 2.1 -- considered the replacement rate -- way back in the early 1990s but its population registered its first decrease only after 2020 -- a trend that has only accelerated since then. This means that India’s population will continue to grow until at least 2050 before peaking and beginning its downward trend.
While some argue that a falling population is bad news -- such arguments largely stem from worries about what would happen to an economy that depends on continuous growth to sustain itself. They argue that such a scenario would make it difficult for society to care for an ageing population with fewer working age men and women to sustain both the economy and the elderly.
On the other hand those who welcome the changing trend point to the possibilities that a lower population can bring including better quality of life that comes with less people competing for a limited number of resources as well as an opportunity for wildlife that has been pushed to the fringes in the wake of human expansion to regain much of its lost territory.
Those who call for government intervention to stem or reverse the population decline fail to understand that the trend is indeed irreversible and a natural result of economic growth and progress that the country has achieved over the decades since independence.
Higher education levels for women combined with women entering the workforce results in women having fewer children, which combined with an improved healthcare system that ensure infant mortality rate is decreasing encourages families to have fewer children.
Instead, we should welcome the falling population trends and instead prepare for a future that is likely to be highlighted by degrowth -- as opposed to continuous centuries of growth that we have grown accustomed to.
Governments across the world will have to devise policies accordingly including those that prepare for a future not just of a falling population but also one that prioritises care for the elderly including a safety net and minimum basic income through redistribution of wealth in order that the population at large does not lose its spending power that in turn could be catastrophic for the economy.
