Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to prepare for a possible COVID-like situation in the wake of the ongoing West Asia conflict underscores the concerns and the economic impact that the war could have on India. Modi’s call comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions, which continue to threaten supply chains and social structures worldwide.
While India has done considerably well so far in filling the gaps caused by disruptions in oil supplies, the government would be helpless in negotiating price inflation and economic instability should the war continue. Food security and livelihoods could face a major challenge. Modi’s belated call serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical tensions can have major consequences for India. The government could face a monumental challenge of not only protecting its citizens but also demonstrating global leadership in crisis management. The path forward demands vigilance, unity, and proactive planning—lessons that must guide the nation in these uncertain times.
Back home, the impact of the war is already felt big time on Goans. While travel across destinations, including summer holidays have been in disarray, there are thousands of seafarers stranded on cruise vessels because they cannot be relieved due to flying restrictions. Livelihoods are being hit in Goa because the commercial supply of LPG has not been restored to normal. While the Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of functional closure, things appear bleak for now.
On the brighter side, while domestic LPG stocks have been ramped up, the commercial stock also has been increased to 50 per cent of the pre-crisis levels, starting from Monday, and the government has urged those in the hospitality sector to consider alternatives like Piped Natural Gas and electrical equipment to tide over the situation. The Directorate of Civil Supplies too have vowed action against black marketeers and those indulging in diverting domestic cylinders.
However, while all appears in place from the outside, the smaller food outlets and eateries are still facing the heat, especially in cities like Vasco, Panaji and Margao. The very existence of “gaddas” is threatened. The once bustling roadside eateries that carried an aroma of freshly cooked fast-food are now grappling with dwindling fuel supplies, forcing them to shut shop. The crisis has exposed the fragility of small business ecosystems.
For decades, small eateries and roadside gadders have been the backbone of Goa's food culture, serving locals and tourists alike. Their survival hinges on a single resource - LPG cylinder. Now, with nearly 80 per cent of these outlets struggling to procure even a single cylinder, the impact is palpable. Menu options are shrinking, and the quality of food is declining as owners turn to makeshift solutions like reheating pre-cooked or preserved food using induction stoves.
Adding fuel to the fire are allegations of a nexus between gas agencies, civil supplies departments, and influential establishments. Small operators claim that cylinders meant for smaller outlets are being diverted to star hotels, chain restaurants, and well-connected entities, leaving their businesses gasping for survival.
Behind these logistical and political challenges lies a deeper concern of loss of livelihoods. Many restaurant owners have invested heavily in staff salaries and overheads, and an extended closure could lead to financial ruin. Their silent anxiety underscores the human cost of this crisis, beyond the immediate fuel shortage.
And that’s not all. We could be headed for worse times. Should the war intensify and the Strait of Hormuz remain shut for a prolonged period, the global oil prices could spike above $150 per barrel. India’s reserves promise a buffer of approximately 75 days, and anything beyond that could have dire economic consequences. Modi’s call means that citizens will have to brace up for the long haul.
