Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Sunday speech at a rally organised by Telangana BJP was a first indication of an economic strain amid rising tension in West Asia. The PM appealed to citizens to minimise vehicle use to reduce the national fuel import bill, opt for carpooling and prioritise metro and public transport over private cars, revive work from home to reduce energy consumption, avoid foreign travel to save foreign exchange, stop gold purchases for one year to curb trade deficit, reduce edible oil consumption to lower the dependency on imported oils and prioritise made-in-India products to support local supply chains during global disruptions.
The shift was obvious, and austerity was the keyword. If we recall, the PM was reassuring in March, asking citizens not to panic. While the US-Iran war was in full spate, Modi had reassured saying “India, as a nation, will navigate every situation successfully because his government has always placed the interests of the citizens above everything.” He had slammed the Opposition parties for fear-mongering and pushing an agenda at the cost of national interest. “India will be able to deal with the challenges arising out of the war”, he had thundered.
Nearly two months later, the tone and tenor changed drastically. Speaking with unusual bluntness, Modi laid out a set of cautionary appeals that pointed to growing concern within the government over India’s economic position and the difficult months ahead. At the centre of his message was the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which has disrupted global energy supplies and increased pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
The government is seeking public participation through a cut in energy consumption, and the message is loud and clear that the period of restraint is looming. However, the day after Modi’s statement, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas assured that there are sufficient fuel stocks of petrol, diesel, LPG, and crude oil. The ministry confirmed that approximately 60 days of crude oil/natural gas and 45 days of LPG are available. In Goa, oil companies have reiterated that there are sufficient stocks and reserves are replenished on a regular basis.
Modi’s cautionary message may be less about immediate alarm and more about preparing the public psychologically for a prolonged period of economic stress. The question is why now. What has changed now? The war continues, and the ground situation and equations haven’t altered. The only difference is that India has just completed a crucial election in five key states.
Like charity, austerity should begin at home. Given the precarious situation perceived by the PM, governments should lead by example. Fuel conservation cannot be restricted only to the common citizen or the man on the street. It may be noted that Modi has had over 40 public meetings and 10 roadshows with convoys of 100-plus cars in the past 30 days, travelling by chartered planes and helicopters. The BJP was in full steam, leaving no stone unturned. The election campaigns in the five States that have gone to the polls recently have burnt enormous fuel, and certainly, there is no hint of any austerity.
If the situation is indeed precarious, it cannot be a moment of optics. Lest we forget, at the onset of Covid, we saw the PM going live on national television, appealing to the people of the country to take caution, burn candles and diyas, and indulge in clapping and clanging utensils. In moments of economic tension, the political leadership is expected to rise to the situation and lead by example. All State governments must be directed to initiate austerity measures, cut down on fuel and travel. Governments cannot demand sacrifice from citizens while remaining insulated. If that happens, calls for austerity lose their moral force.
