The Monday’s result in the Zilla Panchayat elections has put the spotlight once again on an uncomfortable truth: Like it or not, no single party is currently capable of ousting the BJP. The vote share of respective parties makes interesting reading and points to the fact that even if there was a grand alliance of Congress, Goa Forward, Aam Aadmi Party and Revolutionary Goans Party, it would still not be enough to stall the run of the saffron brigade.
Data shows that the BJP stood tall with a 40.63 per cent vote share collectively in North and South Goa. The Congress registered a vote share of 18.93 per cent, the RGP 9.15 per cent, GFP 4.96 per cent, and AAP 5.35 per cent. The cumulative vote share stands at 38.39 per cent, still well below the 44.47 per cent secured by the BJP–MGP combine. However, these are broad numbers and not a set formula.
The problem, however, is that the opposition's disunity helped the BJP in at least seven constituencies. The voting pattern suggests that a grand alliance may have helped a united opposition win in Barcem, Calangute, Siolim, Chimbel, Corlim and Poinguinim. Independent candidates added to the misery of the Opposition since their vote split gave BJP an edge in six constituencies — Karapur-Sarvan, Poinguinim, Sancoale, Mayem, Shiroda and Sanvordem.
In an interesting turn, parties seem to have realised the root of the problem. While the Congress and GFP maintained that a united opposition is the way forward, reality appears to have dawned on RGP after party president Manoj Parab publicly apologised to Congress Goa Desk In-charge Manikrao Thakare for his political spat in the run-up to the elections.
The result has made a mockery of the tough posturing adopted by various parties when negotiations were underway. In fact, the Zilla results would now be a perfect template on which the algorithms could be decided for an alliance. Coalition politics needs diplomacy, understanding and compromises. If parties stick to their instincts and decide candidates on the basis of campaigns or logic best known to individuals, it would be a recipe for disaster.
Parab has been a tough negotiator and campaigner, using blunt language and trying to force his way through by way of provocative discourse on social media. There may not be permanent enemies in electoral politics, but again, in the current situation, friendly fights don’t work either. RGP has secured wins in St Cruz and St Lawrence and has done reasonably well in pockets of Bardez. But that’s not good enough, and not encouraging for the larger Assembly elections.
The election has given loud and clear messages: That party-shaming or leader-shaming may not always work in the larger context. That the defection plank raked up against Congress may also not work, we saw AAP doing it all the time, and yet failing miserably. The reality is that the election has shown that there is a sizeable anti-BJP vote, call it incumbency or otherwise. It is for the Opposition to tap into this vote. How they do it is their business.
There were two distinct scenarios visible at the Zilla Panchayat election – one, the 2022 Assembly elections, where the Opposition was completely fragmented, just the way it happened now, and second, the Lok Sabha poll scenario, where a united opposition subdued a power-packed BJP lineup to win the South Goa seat. The Salcete resurgence of the Congress had those makings.
Opposition parties across the spectrum need to understand the dynamics and take the Zilla result as yet another learning lesson. Being over-ambitious in electoral politics reflects an unnecessary desperation for power. Hope the right lessons are learnt.
