Two weeks on, the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has shown no signs of ending. Hopes that this would be a quick conflict, in which Iran, long suffering under sanctions unilaterally imposed by the United States, would quickly be overwhelmed, have been quickly dashed, meaning that the possibility of this being a long, drawn-out conflict is increasing by the day. The effects of that are being felt worldwide. Global stock markets have crashed, and oil prices have skyrocketed.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the world’s daily consumption of crude oil flows besides being a key checkpoint connecting the Arabian Gulf and countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and others to the rest of the world is now closely guarded by Iran which has vowed to attack any ships belonging to the USA, Israel or their affiliates.
India, too, has been caught in this quagmire. The spiking cost of crude oil has meant India’s import bill has ballooned while extreme shortages of cooking gas have meant that commercial supply has come to a halt. Despite assurances to the contrary, kitchens across the country -- from hostel canteens to restaurants and community kitchens to hospitals have all begun to use firewood to ensure that those who depend on them have food to eat.
While the government might reassure the general public that adequate supply is available, reality flies in the face of their repeated assurances. But the biggest loss India has faced is its standing on the international stage. The country, whose leader has repeatedly boasted that the country is today a ‘Vishwaguru’ (teacher of the world) and was a guardian of the Indian Ocean, has been found wanting. In failing to stand up for itself, for its interests and for the anti-colonial and non-violent ideals that it was founded on, India’s claims that it is a country that today charts its own path in an increasingly divided world has proven to be a non-starter.
Just over the past two weeks, India has failed to condemn the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a long-time ally of India who has consistently backed India’s efforts at rooting out Islamic terrorism, has offered India a route into Central Asia via the Chabbar Port to help bypass Pakistan and maintained close ties via business interests between India and Iran. However, for its part, India meekly surrendered to US sanctions and ceased buying Iranian oil and later also similarly surrendered to American demands to stop buying Russian oil without even the pretence of a pushback.
Today, India has resumed purchasing Russian oil (this time without the discount and instead with a premium) only after the USA publicly said they were permitting us to do so. Similarly, India has refused to condemn the sinking of an Iranian Naval ship off the coast of Sri Lanka, a ship that was in the Indian Ocean because it was returning from attending naval joint exercises hosted by India.
That India could dump a long-time ally with whom relations go back thousands of years in order that we do not jeopardise our relationship with the imperial powers of today -- the USA and Israel reflects poorly on the current leadership of the country, whose very founding was built on telling the imperial powers to pack their bags. India’s ambiguous foreign policy looks less like a refusal to take sides and more like a cowardly cop out, afraid of being bullied on the global stage. The damage will be felt for years to come.
