There is no comfort in Covid wave study

| OCTOBER 19, 2020, 11:27 PM IST

Is India moving towards a comfort zone after being battered by dreaded Covid for over seven months? Is the lower count of positive cases enough to justify that we are in the safe territory? The flattening of the Covid curve is mainly a belief bordering on lowering of cases, and by no figment of imagination should be construed as a victory over the invisible enemy. Coronavirus is very much there.

A study commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology provides an abstract ray of hope that the country has crossed the peak. It doesn't give firm backing to the claim except for the fact that there is a dip in cases. The highest number of Covid-related deaths in the country was 1,290 on September 16. From a peak of 97,000-plus cases, we are now registering around 60,000 cases a day.

Covid being on the wane is undoubtedly good news, but we can't assume that the worst is behind us. There is a word of caution from the experts. The winter is coming, and so is the festive season. The seven-member study team has opined that India may face a severe second wave if there is any laxity in protocol and safety measures during the next few months. Niti Aayog member VK Paul also said he cannot rule out a second wave of Covid during winter, and added that the 1918 pandemic had caused greater havoc in winters. Two of the panel members have relied on a series of probabilities based on data from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. They claim that a small group of super-spreaders are passing on the infection, while 70 per cent of the infected people have not transmitted the disease to others.

Trends across the world tell us that Covid waves cannot be timed. Europe has shown signs of massive resurgence in Covid cases after witnessing a slowdown, and some countries are headed for worse times. The flattening of the curve doesn't insulate India either, and we could see a second and third wave till a vaccine arrives. Experts believe that much depends on human behaviour and how people adapt to unlocks. The ground rules remain the same, and hence protocol of social distancing, use of face-masks, sanitization and personal hygiene are still central to the fight against the virus.

Medical experts across the world opine that public behavioural patterns have a direct bearing on the spread of infection with the impact felt over time. The projection in the study of active cases plunging below the 50,000-mark is based on the current rate of recoveries and transmission; there is no projection of a worst-case scenario.

While doing a delicate balancing between economics and public health, there is a primary need to enforce pandemic discipline. In the absence of a vaccine, Covid will be lurking around waiting to strike. Governments must capitalize on this Covid lull to reinforce infrastructure and prepare for any eventuality.

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