Gujarat's development trance

In a state used to gambling daily on the number of squareson the coat of R K Laxman’s Common Man, it is hardly surprising to find manywagering on the outcome of the December elections. It is even less surprisingthat the gambling dens had picked Narendra Modi as the clear winner even beforethe parties named their candidates.

At the end of the democratic exercise of elections, intendedno doubt to empower the people, some will make millions on the sidelines at thecost of the many. Life might be miserable for the latter but there are peoplewho have made human emotions measurable – preferably in money. What else can explainbets on monsoon, the failure of which is a routine tragedy in many parts of thestate?

Gujarat has enriched itself manifold over the last twodecades of neo-liberalism. After Narendra Modi’s arrival, the pace has onlybecome more furious, unleashing a spirit that has insatiable hunger for wealth.But this new culture of money stands in sharp contrast to the old-worldGujarati tradition, which combined entrepreneurship and moneymaking withthrift, religious philanthropy and even institution-building. Make no mistake,Gandhi’s Gujarat has changed (as has the rest of India). It is unfair to expectanything else 64 years after his death but you could still be in for a rudeshock at the extent of change in culture and collective psyche of the stateinduced by the last decade’s growth and prosperity.

Take, for instance, the delight of the farmers near Vadodaraover the spiralling value of their agriculture land. “The price of land hasincreased manifold in our village. That makes us feel quite rich,” said a father-sonduo that supplies tobacco leaves to gutkha manufacturers. Asked if they wouldsell the land and encash the windfall, they said not immediately.

“But you feel good when your property price escalates,” thetwo added.

The high price is only in their thought bubble, not in theirbank balance, but what they were expressing is the pervasive feeling across thestate that Gujarat has never had it so good.

Overall a pretty picture

Driven by this animal spirit of the market economy creatingnot only personal wealth but also a constant craving for it, the state has beenevolving a model which inspires awe and scepticism in the same degree.According to Purushottam Marvania, who teaches economics at SaurashtraUniversity, history bears out the fact that such models are not sustainable. Hepoints out that the drought-prone Saurashtra region posted unprecedented growthin the 1970s, thanks to a boom in the diesel pumping sets industry. This led tobumper yields in agricultural produce but the high growth story came with acruel twist. Uncontrolled and unregulated pumping of ground water caused thewater table to drop so drastically that water turned saline and farming becameuntenable within a decade. 

On the face of it, the current phase of growth seems betterfounded. In recent years, propitious monsoons have helped Saurashtra rechargeits depleted ground water. At the same time, access to irrigation has improvedwith the availability of Narmada water and far-reaching reforms in the powersector have ensured round-the-clock supply of electricity for irrigation. Thishas practically eliminated the polluting diesel pumping sets and helpedrecharge the water table even more. Farmers were persuaded to switch to cashcrops leading to more prosperity and the industry was given tax sops tomanufacture electric pumping sets (as against diesel pumping sets).

As of now, the industrial estates in and around Rajkot havebecome ancillary hubs for the growing automobile sector in the state.

But that pretty picture is showing signs of fraying at theedges in this election year. Saurashtra is very critical to Gujarat politics,as it sends nearly one-third of all legislators to the Gujarat assembly (58 outof 182). The monsoon has failed in parts of the state this year and theelections are being held against the spectre of drought and scarcity after manyyears of a good run. The switch to cash crops has contributed to amind-boggling growth in agriculture (nearly 30 per cent in some years) andfarmer prosperity, but it has set off warning signals elsewhere.

Production of cereal has taken a beating, requiring Gujaratto import nearly 30 per cent of cereal it consumes from other states. In astate battling very high levels of child malnutrition, this could extenuate thenutritional imbalance.

The government has picked child malnutrition as an area offocus and as a precaution against recurrent droughts thousands of check-damsand hundreds of small reservoirs have been constructed over the last decade andmore. But Marvania is sceptical. “All these measures are woefully inadequate,as the region is facing a serious economic recession, not only on account ofdrought but also because of the curbs imposed on cotton imports by China,” hesays.

It is too early for such sub-sonic signals of trouble toregister in the din over growth and development. So they have done little todampen the festive spirit of the people. What Raju Dhruva, the Bharatiya JanataParty (BJP) spokesman for Saurashtra, said in a slightly different context sumsup the situation: “Gujaratis are in the mood to celebrate now and celebratethey will, even if they have to take a loan to do so.” 

And why not? Signs of opulence abound in Rajkot, which isknown as the heart of Saurashtra and dominated by the Patel community. Crowdsof people outside the city’s shopping malls, long queues outside expensiverestaurants and over-booked five-star hotels are obviously not indications ofan impending doom by any stretch of imagination. For the Gujarati middle class,display of big spending is the new fad. And this significant social chunk isaverse to disturbing the status quo.

A respected Gujarat academic and an unabashed Modi-baiterhad told Governance Now candidly and presciently: “We have lost the argument….You will soon see the US and other countries courting Modi (he had become sortof pariah for the West post-2002 riots).” 

How infallible is the God of Growth?

Two years later, that’s exactly what has happened. Theenvoys of UK and the US have made their first trip to Gandhinagar in 10 yearsto restart the conversation with Modi. And, obviously, in these two years, thevoices of dissent have not discovered anything new to say because they haveonly been further marginalised.

It would be as unfair to deny Modi credit for decisiveleadership as it would be naive to believe that poverty does not exist inGujarat. What doesn’t exist is popular and political discourse on poverty, andissues related to the marginal sections of society. Any discussion on thealarming levels of child malnutrition, or the poor quality of education inprimary and intermediate classes, is seen as representation of acounter-culture inimical to the state’s interests. Gujarat’s voices of dissenthave been shushed into silence by a people unwilling to entertain any discourseother than the most pleasant.

That is perhaps why issues relating to the environment andecology have found new interpretation in Gujarat’s relentless pursuit ofgrowth, as is evident in the popular distaste for any protest against thefurious pace of industrialisation along the coast or the industrial corridorsthat have come up across the state. These issues are not even on the peripheryof the electoral discourse of any political party. In such a setting, friendsand foes alike have only been idolising the existing Gujarat model.

In so doing, they have only been strengthening Modiinadvertently and making him into Gujarat’s infallible God of Growth. And Modihimself loves to explore the realms of Godliness thrust upon him by inventingnew ways of being everywhere. If in 2007 the Modi masks did the trick, he isusing technology to present himself in a whole new avatar by “appearing” infour public meetings in four corners of Gujarat at the same time, all the whilesitting in his office in Gandhinagar! No wonder that in Gujarat, Modi isall-pervasive. And Gujarat is in a deep trance. The development trance.