RSS has potrayed itself as an undivided house by expressing solidarity with Velingkar, but the ongoing upheaval has also given rise to two factions within BJP
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bio: Pramod Acharya is Editor, Prudent Media
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It is truly unprecedented. Even the seasoned “think tanks” of the RSS are unable to comprehend the damage that a “war tank” like Subhash Velingkar can incur on the mighty Lotus in this electoral battlefield. He has been the guide, philosopher and strategist for Manohar Parrikar for over two decades, the way Chanakya was to Chandragupta Maurya. Now here is a situation where Chanakya has opened a fierce combat front against Chandragupta for failing to live up to the principles that he inculcated in the brave warrior. History is getting restructured. Precisely for this reason everybody is overwhelmingly analyzing and predicting where this tussle will lead. It is not only an inquisitive matter of political study but also social.
There are three aspects that form this MoI agitation by the BBSM. First is obviously the medium of instruction at primary level; second concession given to Diocesan and Archdiocesan Society of Education to run English medium primary schools by obtaining government grants; third the battle between the former “rajguru” and his “raja” where the guru feels betrayed by the protégé.
Subhash Velingkar has definitely not revolted against the principles of the RSS; however, he has surely broken the chain of command and the greatly glorified and pompously advertised discipline of the Sangh. He still considers himself a Swayamsevak and maintains that his “Goa-RSS” is created only for a period of six months. He would return back to his fold thereafter. Interestingly, after the initial hullaballoo, the strategic acumen of the Sangh has taken over the bewilderment caused by the daredevil mutiny. The newly-appointed Sanghchalak has placed an interesting argument – Subhash Velingkar has been “loaned out” to BBSM just the way RSS deputes some of its politically inclined Swayamsevaks to the BJP. Velingkar happened to be a Sanghchalak and person adorning that position is not expected to get into politicking. There is no one else with the BBSM that can do such maneuverings and in absence of the BJP as an ally a new powerful political option needs to emerge out of this crisis.
That’s an interesting spin. RSS is not only displaying solidarity with Velingkar, they are also trashing the BJP as a viable political option – both points that were initially suspected to be otherwise.
This moral posturing lends two crucial advantages to the RSS. One – it portrays itself as an undivided house in the cause and united in its effect. Two - the issue of Velingkar breaking ranks becomes sidelined and RSS vs BJP or RSS plus Velingkar vs BJP takes centrestage.
For the BJP, this is a doubly tricky situation. The pro-Manohar Parrikar camp that was jubilant after Velingkar’s removal from the post of Sanghchalak needs to step back a bit. Their initial calculation that the Sangh discipline will prevail over Swayamsevak’s passion and pull towards the cause of MoI and the leadership of Velingkar respectively was decimated on day two. The announcement of the new Sanghchalak too did not move staunch RSS activists from marking their presence at the Velingkar Mahamelava. Shrewd as we know it, RSS did course correction and readjusted its moral compass and left the BJP high and dry.
Although RSS has made its peace with the turmoil in Goa, BJP is far from calm. Two factions within the BJP are now notably evident. One faction that follows Manohar Parrikar believes that revoking the MoI policy would lead to BJP being branded as “Hindu” party with over the top RSS influence on them. They also fear that whatever goodwill they have earned during Manohar Parrikar’s steering days with the minorities will go down the drain. We might have lost their votes, we don’t want to lose their friendliness is their argument. To an extent, this is true. Manohar Parrikar succeeded in building these vital bridges between the BJP and the minority communities in Goa. He was never looked upon as a “fanatic” leader nor was he considered as “communal”. He worked very hard to earn this compassion and revoking the policy would be end of it. As we know, MoI is no longer an academic issue. It has become an outright communal issue. The divide is starkly visible on social media too.
The second faction within the BJP believes that the policy needs to be revoked as a matter of faith and principle. These BJP leaders, including some from the core group of the party, deem that it is wrong to allot grants to English medium primary schools. Moreover, it is preposterous to do it only for the institutions run by the Church. For rest this is a matter of survival. Most of these MLAs get elected by a margin of 1,000-2,000 votes. What if Swayamsevaks in their area vote for someone else or not vote at all?
We have seen what happened to the Congress in 2012 when its core voter base shifted towards BJP and other options including some of the independents who have performed brilliantly during these five years. The same can happen to the BJP if its core base deviates towards an alternative emerging out of this scenario. The only question is – there was Manohar Parrikar on the alternate side in 2012 to capitalize on this breakaway vote share. Who is there on the other side in 2017 to recreate the magic? In absence of the MGP breaking the alliance, BBSM may also find itself grappling with cluelessness.
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