We are in the second month of hostilities arising from this unplanned war. It appears we are in for a long haul, with several Gulf nations showing willingness to join. The Houthis of Yemen have also joined, aiming to keep the Straits of Hormuz free from blockades. Leaders are growing restless and want to see tangible results, especially to bring down crude oil prices. Prices have risen sharply to around $119 a barrel, leading to an overall increase in related products. Jet fuel has increased by 25% to 100% from its previous levels, resulting in higher airfares for foreign travellers. Motor fuel and LPG have also risen significantly. Imports of Russian fuel have kept prices relatively stable in India. Prices remain steady, though there is uncertainty about whether they will rise or fall. India is in a privileged position, as its tankers are allowed to transit the straits to import oil.
The possibility of Iran using dirty bombs in the current conflict is expected to be contained. It is believed to possess 400 kgs of unrefined, war-grade uranium, and efforts are being made to secure and neutralise this material. In the past week, mixed signals have emerged suggesting that the war may end within two weeks, possibly as a face-saving measure rather than a decisive victory for the dominant forces led by the US. Meanwhile, many buildings and key infrastructure—such as bridges, fuel tankers, and gas processing stations—are under attack and suffering heavy damage. Iran has indicated a willingness to end the war, but on its own terms, including compensation for damages and passage fees for tankers. In retaliation, it is reportedly planning attacks on technology companies and other key installations, including military bases.
A timeline of two to three weeks has been suggested for ending the war, though this seems doubtful given the volatile situation, with each side seeking its own advantage. The conflict is severely affecting weaker nations and their people. Casualties in South Lebanon are rising daily, with people facing extreme violence, destruction, and loss of life. Domestic inflation is likely to rise sharply due to this escalation. One US fighter jet has been shot down; one pilot has been captured, and another is missing. The US is searching south-west Iran for the missing pilot. Back home, fuel price increases are not uncommon and are being closely monitored. The burden is largely being felt by the public, with no clear end in sight. It is hoped that sound judgement will prevail and that these destructive hostilities will come to a swift end.
