PANAJI
The fireworks that were set off following news of incumbent MLA Govind Gaude’s ouster from the cabinet could well have been that of his political rival celebrating the fact that the Priol Assembly constituency has been thrown wide open, rather than any genuine celebratory fire fueled by relief.
The two-term MLA Govind Gaude, who won narrowly at the 2022 Assembly polls by a mere 200-odd votes was a minister ever since he was first elected in 2017 as an independent defeating former minister Deepak Dhavalikar who was himself a two-term MLA between 2007 and 2012.
Priol, which is the second largest constituency in Ponda by area, has by and large been a ‘stable’ constituency that has thrown up a neat pattern of giving each representative two consecutive terms before giving them the boot.
It was first Dr Kashinath Jalmi of the MGP who was elected for two terms before he lost to Vishwas Satarkar of the BJP, who also won two terms -- in 1999 and 2002 -- until he was replaced by Deepak Dhavalikar who won in 2007 and 2012 only to be succeeded by Govind Gaude.
A constituency, created out of parts taken from the Marcaim and Ponda constituencies when at the time of statehood Goa’s constituencies were increased from 30 to 40, has consistently been eyed by the dominant forces of the taluka.
Former minister Pandurang Madkaikar’s brother Dhaku Madkaikar contested the seat in 2012, while Deepak Dhavalikar contested four times winning twice.
According to political analysts, the current situation means that both the BJP and the MGP, despite being alliance partners, will be eager to jostle their way into the space vacated by Dhavalikar.
“On one hand the MGP will see an opportunity to, as an alliance partner, stake claim to the seat as part of any alliance that they hope to be part of ahead of the 2027 general assembly elections, on the other hand the BJP will, use the carrot of the seat to ask the MGP to stay in its lane, while on the other, it will also be eying the seat for itself with former MLA Vishwas Satarkar more than eager to reclaim what was once his,” a political analyst, who declined to be named, said.
The Priol assembly constituency consists of the town of Marcel and surrounding villages like Betqui-Candola, Tivrem-Orgao, Veling-Priol, Bhoma-Adcolna, Volvoi and Verem Vaghurme besides Querim.
With a more than 90% Hindu population, the constituency has been a bastion of the MGP-BJP combine with the Congress never having won the seat even once more than 35-years since the constituency was created. The seat has only been represented by the two parties, who are alliance partners in the current government and as such, if it is to be a contest it can only be between the two parties for the seat.
“If the two parties team up, it’s almost a guaranteed seat for whoever gets to contest it. If they go against each other, it will be one or the other. History shows that this isn’t a constituency where a third candidate can take advantage of a split in the vote between the two main warring parties,” the analyst said.
A perusal of the assembly seats between the two parties indicates as much in 2022, Deepak lost narrowly to Gaude. In 2017 Gaude, as an independent, defeated Deepak with the support of the BJP. In 2012 Deepak won, despite Gaude putting up a tough fight and securing more than 10,000 votes despite being an independent.
Since the earliest days, the constituency has almost always thrown up a straight fight. “It is unlikely that the pattern will change anytime soon and with Gaude out of the way, anti-incumbency isn’t going to be a factor either. The BJP leadership has gotten it right with this one,” the analyst also said.
Gaude is, however, unlikely to give up without a fight, and will need to dip into his years of political experience. It was a long time ago, but Gaude first entered the political fray back in 2007 taking on current power minister Sudin Dhavalikar as the Congress’ Madkai candidate.
The following election in 2012, Gaude contested as an independent from the Priol constituency backed by a group led by Yatish Naik, then with the Pilerne Citizens Forum. Though unsuccessful, on both occasions he came second with the second being closer than most anticipated. It paved the way for his eventual election in 2017 as an independent, though backed by the BJP.
Gaude is likely to fall back and contest as an independent, but this time he won’t have the advantage of being a wildcard. That he has antagonised the artiste community, has faced allegations of corruption in renovating the Kala Academy and in organising the national games won’t really help his cause.
“He lacks the political heft he once commanded and will find the going difficult after years of antagonising his voters. That said, they are unlikely to abandon him completely and much will depend on how he plays his cards between now and 2027,” the analyst said.
