PANAJI
Goa could face an uneven and weaker monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season, even as much of the country, including Goa, is expected to receive below normal rainfall.
The arrival of the south-west monsoon has already been delayed.
In its updated long-range forecast released on Thursday, the IMD said the country as a whole is likely to receive only 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, indicating below normal rainfall across large parts of India.
The South Peninsula region has also been placed in the below-normal rainfall category.
The weather agency further said that neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific Ocean are “transitioning towards El Niño conditions” and that climate models indicate El Niño is likely to develop during the monsoon season.
The development is being closely watched because El Niño years are often associated with weaker and erratic monsoons in India, which has raised concerns over water availability, agriculture and heat stress.
An IMD official said that for Goa, where reservoirs, rivers and groundwater sources depend heavily on sustained monsoon rainfall, any prolonged deficit or uneven distribution of rain could have implications for drinking water supply later in the year.
The IMD said below normal rainfall may lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability.
“Below-normal rainfall may lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystem sustainability, along with increased risks of drought, heat stress, and pressure on drinking water resources,” it said suggesting that to minimize these impacts, strategies can include efficient water resource management, promotion of water conservation practices, contingency planning for agriculture, strengthening drought monitoring and use of early warning services of IMD, and enhancing preparedness measures in sectors that are particularly vulnerable to rainfall deficits.
The forecast comes at a time when Goa has been experiencing unusually humid and unstable pre-monsoon weather conditions.
