MAPUSA
In a dramatic turn on the final day of nominations, the Ponda by-election has evolved into a far more layered political contest than initially anticipated, with shifting alliances and strategic retreats reshaping the battlefield ahead of the April 9 vote.
While all three national parties – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) – have fielded candidates, it is the unexpected moves by regional players that have injected fresh intrigue into the race.
RGP’s calculated gamble
In a surprising pivot, the Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP) has opted out of the fray, choosing instead to extend support to the Congress candidate – a decision that marks a sharp departure from its long-standing adversarial stance.
The move is particularly striking given the history of friction between the two parties, with Congress leaders previously dismissing RGP as a “B-team” of the BJP.
That the RGP has now chosen to bolster the Congress suggests a pragmatic recalibration rather than ideological convergence.
Party president Manoj Parab acknowledged the difficulty of the decision, even as he pointed out the absence of formal alliance talks.
Political observers interpret this as a strategic sacrifice aimed at consolidating anti-BJP votes in a high-stakes by-poll where fragmentation could prove decisive.
“RGP appears to have read the arithmetic clearly – that a divided Opposition would only ease the BJP’s path. By stepping aside, it is attempting to remain politically relevant while influencing the outcome indirectly,” a senior political analyst noted.
Cong gains, but not without complications
The Congress stands to benefit numerically from RGP’s support, especially among sections of the local electorate where RGP has cultivated a grassroots base.
The recent induction of Dr Ketan Bhatikar, a former Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) candidate who narrowly lost in 2022, further strengthens its local connect.
However, the Congress-led Opposition space remains far from cohesive.
The stance of the Goa Forward Party (GFP) continues to be ambiguous, with internal discontent simmering after party chief Vijai Sardesai was publicly criticised by Leader of Opposition Yuri Alemao, who labelled him “Judas” during the recent session of the Goa Legislative Assembly.
The episode has strained ties between the two parties, long regarded as natural allies.
“We have not fielded a candidate for the by-election, which effectively means we are backing the alliance with the Congress. However, given the recent bad blood, we will not be in a position to campaign in the by-election,” GFP chief Vijai Sardesai said, indicating he is still grappling with the recent slight from the Leader of Opposition.
BJP closes ranks
For the BJP, the consolidation of its internal ranks may prove equally significant.
The party has fielded Ritesh Naik, son of the late Ravi Naik, a towering Bhandari leader whose personal influence remains a key electoral factor in Ponda.
Crucially, the BJP has managed to avert a potential rebellion, with ticket aspirant Vishwanath Dalvi – who had initially threatened to revolt – now rallying behind Naik.
This internal cohesion, combined with the support of the MGP, provides the BJP with a relatively stable base going into the contest.
A multi-cornered contest with hidden undercurrents
Despite the apparent bipolarity suggested by RGP’s move, the presence of the AAP ensures that the anti-incumbency vote is not entirely consolidated. AAP’s ability to draw a slice of urban and youth voters could still impact the margins in what is expected to be a closely fought election.
The by-poll is now shaping up as a test of three competing dynamics:
Opposition consolidation v/s fragmentation: RGP’s support may boost Congress, but GFP’s ambiguity and AAP’s presence could dilute gains.
Legacy v/s arithmetic: BJP’s reliance on the legacy of Ravi Naik and organisational strength versus Congress’s attempt to stitch together a broader anti-BJP coalition.
Local factors over party lines: With shifting loyalties and recent crossovers, candidate appeal and micro-level mobilisation may outweigh traditional party affiliations.
As one senior observer summed up, “RGP’s decision has made the contest tighter, not clearer. It reduces one layer of fragmentation but exposes deeper fault lines within the Opposition.”
With alliances still fluid and undercurrents evolving, Ponda heads into polling day with more questions than answers and the outcome could hinge on which side better manages the delicate balance between unity and ambition.
