Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are expected to start Monday on a strong note, continuing their upward trend for a second straight session. This comes after GIFT Nifty jumped over 250 points on Saturday. Markets had already closed the previous week more than 2% higher on Friday, as investors recovered losses from March amid improving sentiment. Hopes of an early resolution to the Iran–US conflict, along with other positive factors, have supported the recent recovery following March’s sharp sell-off.
Here are six key factors likely to influence the Indian stock market next week:
Possible easing of Iran–US tensions
Investor confidence is rising with expectations that the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US may ease soon. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel has already begun, and US President Donald Trump indicated that officials from Washington and Tehran may hold talks over the weekend. He also mentioned that Iran could agree to avoid developing nuclear weapons for over 20 years, addressing a major concern that had blocked earlier peace efforts.
Oil prices remain below $100
In a positive development for global markets, Iran confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important oil routes—is fully open for commercial shipping during the ceasefire period. Meanwhile, Donald Trump said that an agreement to resolve the US-Israel conflict with Iran is close. As a result, oil prices dropped sharply. Brent crude fell to $90.38 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $83.85 per barrel after touching lower levels during the session.
Strong earnings from major banks
Major banks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank reported their March quarter results on Saturday. HDFC Bank posted a net profit of Rs 19,221 crore, up 9% year-on-year. ICICI Bank reported a net profit of Rs 13,702 crore, an increase of 8.5% compared to last year. Yes Bank showed strong growth, with profit rising 44.8% to Rs 1,068.4 crore from Rs 738 crore a year earlier.
Rupee shows strength
The Indian rupee continued to gain against the US dollar, rising 0.3% to close at 92.9250 after touching a one-week high of 92.66. After falling to a record low of 95.21 on March 30, the currency has recovered with support from RBI measures and easing global tensions. Key support levels are seen around 92.28 and 91.91, while resistance is expected near 93.50–93.68 and around 94. The overall short-term outlook remains positive.
Technical indicators
The Nifty 50 index is currently recovering and moving within the 24,100–24,400 range, showing improving sentiment and gradual momentum. A strong move above 24,400 could push the index towards 24,800–25,000. On the downside, support is seen near 24,000 and then 23,800. Indicators like RSI are improving, but a clear breakout above resistance levels is needed to confirm a sustained upward trend.
FIIs continue buying
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net buyers for three consecutive sessions. On Friday, they bought shares worth Rs 683 crore despite high volatility. Between April 15 and 17, FIIs invested over Rs 1,500 crore in Indian equities. Looking ahead, market movement will depend on both global and domestic factors. Developments in US–Iran relations will remain important, as they can impact geopolitical stability and oil prices. At the same time, corporate earnings will continue to shape investor sentiment and influence sector performance and overall market direction in the near term.
