The Nifty closed the week slightly higher, helped by buying interest in financial and metal stocks. As trading resumes on Monday, several key developments during the week could influence market mood.
The 50-share index gained 117 points, or 0.46%, on Friday to finish at 25,571.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty is facing resistance near the 21-day EMA on the daily chart even though it ended higher on Friday. He noted that the RSI remains in a bearish crossover, suggesting weak momentum.
He added that India VIX stayed volatile, keeping traders cautious. According to him, the index may move within the 25,300–25,800 range in the coming sessions. Immediate support is around 25,500, while resistance is seen near 25,650.
Factors likely to steer the market on Monday.
Trump tariffs
Global markets will closely watch developments after the US Supreme Court struck down broad tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. The decision initially lifted market sentiment.
However, Trump later signed new orders imposing a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, which was then raised to 15%, saying the move would take effect almost immediately. Investors will track how global markets react to these changes.
Geopolitics
Tensions between the US and Iran remain a major concern for global investors. Indian markets had faced heavy selling pressure earlier due to these worries.
Trump recently warned Iran of possible military action if negotiations do not progress. Reports also said the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier entered the Mediterranean Sea as part of a larger US military build-up in the region. Such developments could increase market uncertainty.
US markets
Indian markets are likely to take direction from Wall Street. On Friday, major US indices ended slightly lower. The Dow Jones closed at 49,359, down 83 points, while the S&P 500 slipped 5 points to 6,940. The Nasdaq Composite also fell marginally by 14.63 points to close at 23,515.40.
Despite Friday’s decline, US markets ended the week in positive territory. The Dow gained 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.70%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.90% over the week.
Crude oil
Oil prices may rise if geopolitical tensions worsen, especially if there is any disruption to supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz remains critical for global energy trade, with nearly 13 million barrels of crude oil passing through it daily, accounting for around 31% of global seaborne crude trade.
US WTI crude was trading at $66.31 per barrel, slightly lower, while Brent crude settled at $71.76, showing a marginal increase.
FII/DII action
Data from Friday showed that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 934.61 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, bought shares worth Rs 2,637.15 crore.
While FII inflows have remained positive overall in February, continued buying will be important if markets are to finish the month strongly and overcome seasonal weakness.
IPO watch
The primary market is expected to stay active this week. Three mainboard IPOs are set to raise a combined Rs 4,063 crore. These include Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, jewellery retailer PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery, and Omnitech Engineering.
In addition, six SME IPOs will open, taking total expected fundraising across segments to nearly Rs 4,300 crore. Some of the SME issues include Shree Ram Twistex, Kiaasa Retail, Accord Transformer and Switchgear, and Mobilise App Lab.
Technical triggers
According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty formed a strong bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating recovery from lower levels but continued selling pressure at higher levels. The index remains below its 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs. Key long-term support is near the 200-day EMA around 25,250.
The brokerage expects the index to move sideways in a broad 25,000–26,000 range in the near term. Immediate support is seen at 25,350 and 25,200, while resistance levels are placed near 25,650 and 25,720.
Rupee Vs dollar
The rupee weakened by 26 paise on Friday to close at 90.94 against the US dollar. The fall came as the dollar strengthened globally and crude oil prices rose amid geopolitical tensions. During the day, the rupee touched a low of 91.04 before settling at 90.94.
Earlier in the week, the currency had gained slightly to close at 90.68 on Wednesday. The forex market was shut on Thursday due to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti.
Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said the USDINR pair has broken above a two-week consolidation range between 90.40 and 90.80. He added that support is now seen at 90.80, while resistance levels are at 91.10 and 91.40.
