The Nifty ended the week lower, falling about 1.3% due to uncertainty in Iran-US talks, high energy prices, and a weak rupee. As markets reopen on Monday after a shorter trading week, several important factors are expected to affect investor sentiment.
The index dropped 486.85 points, or 2.09%, to close at 22,819.60. Rupak De from LKP Securities said the index is trading below its 21-hour EMA, which shows continued short-term weakness.
The RSI has also turned negative. He said markets may see selling on every rise, with resistance near 23,500 and support around 22,800.
1. Iran-Israel war
The ongoing conflict, now over a month old, has impacted global markets, including India. Nifty has fallen nearly 9% since February 28.
The situation has worsened, with attacks spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
Reports say Houthis targeted ships and launched attacks on Israel, which responded with air strikes.
The US has also carried out strikes. Gulf countries have reportedly told the US that any deal with Iran should also limit its missile and drone capabilities.
2. Local holidays
Markets will be closed twice next week—on March 31 for Shri Mahavir Jayanti and on April 3 for Good Friday. With fewer trading days, global factors may have a bigger impact.
3. US markets
US markets are also under pressure due to war concerns. Investors are watching the upcoming US jobs report, expected to show 55,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate.
The report will be released on April 3, when US markets are closed. Major US indices ended sharply lower, led by heavy losses in tech stocks.
4. Crude oil
Oil prices remain high, raising inflation worries. Any further rise could lead to more selling in equity markets.
US WTI crude rose to $101.18 per barrel, while Brent reached $114.57.
5. FII and DII activity
Foreign investors continued to sell heavily in March, pulling out Rs 1.14 lakh crore. So far in 2026, total outflows stand at Rs 1.27 lakh crore.
On Friday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 4,367.30 crore, while domestic investors bought Rs 3,566.15 crore.
6. Technical outlook
Dr Ravi Singh of Master Capital Services said Nifty has fallen below the key 23,000 level and remains under its 200-day EMA, showing a strong bearish trend. The 22,500–22,470 range is an important support zone.
If it breaks, the index could fall towards 22,000. Resistance is seen at 23,150 and 23,500.
He advised a sell-on-rise strategy, with volatility expected to remain high.
7. Rupee vs dollar
The rupee will also be closely watched. It fell to a record low of 94.84 against the dollar on Friday, due to global uncertainty and energy concerns.
The RBI has asked banks to limit their currency exposure. The rupee has dropped over 11% this financial year.
It is expected to trade between 94.25 and 95.25 in the near term.
8. IPO activity
The primary market will be quiet, with no new IPOs planned. Focus will be on the listing of Coal India’s CMPDI and six other companies.
These include Sai Parenteral, Powerica, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar, and SME firms like Speciality Medicines, Tipco Engineering India, and Highness Microelectronics.
