Indian stock markets ended Friday with heavy losses due to broad selling pressure. Auto, financial and FMCG stocks were among the biggest losers. As markets reopen on Monday, several global and domestic factors are expected to influence investor mood.
The 50-share Nifty fell 317.90 points, or 1.25%, to close at 25,178.65. Analysts said the index has weakened after staying below its short-term moving average for three sessions. It has also slipped below the 200-day moving average, suggesting continued weakness in the near term.
According to market experts, technical indicators show bearish signals. The RSI has turned weak, indicating selling pressure may continue. Support levels are seen around 25,000 and 24,750, while resistance is likely near 25,370.
Iran-Israel war
Global markets may react strongly if tensions between Iran and Israel rise further. Ongoing conflict has increased uncertainty, and investors are expected to stay cautious while the situation remains unstable.
Israel carried out strikes on Iran after nuclear talks between the United States and Iran reportedly failed. In response, Iran launched missiles targeting Israel and US bases in parts of the Middle East. The situation has raised concerns about prolonged geopolitical risk.
US markets
Indian markets are expected to take cues from Wall Street. US indices ended lower on Friday as investors moved away from riskier assets.
The Dow Jones fell 521.28 points to close at 48,977.90. The Nasdaq dropped 210 points to 22,668.20, while the S&P 500 also ended lower with a smaller decline of 0.43%.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices will remain an important factor for markets. Both Brent and US WTI crude rose over 3% in the previous session and may continue to stay firm when trading resumes.
WTI crude settled at $67.29 per barrel, while Brent closed at $72.87 per barrel, both at multi-month highs. Since India imports nearly 80% of its crude oil needs, higher prices could push inflation higher and affect investor confidence.
FII/ DII action
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 7,536.36 crore on Friday. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, bought shares worth Rs 2,292.81 crore.
Although FIIs had turned net buyers in February, the latest selling has raised concerns about whether that trend will continue. Rising geopolitical tensions may make foreign investors more cautious in the short term.
AI threat
Analysts said the IT sector continues to face pressure both fundamentally and technically. Momentum indicators suggest weakness, with RSI in oversold territory and other indicators pointing to a strong downtrend.
Experts noted that unless the sector regains key resistance levels around 31,000–31,300, the outlook is likely to remain negative, and any recovery could be gradual.
Sector watch
The ongoing conflict and rising oil prices may impact several sectors. Oil marketing companies could face pressure due to higher input costs, which may hurt margins.
On the other hand, oil exploration companies like ONGC may benefit from higher crude prices. Paint and tyre companies could also feel pressure as crude is an important raw material. Airline and tourism stocks are expected to remain in focus as well.
Technical triggers
Market analysts said Nifty has slipped below the important 200-DMA level of around 25,350, which may now act as resistance. The index continues to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating a weak trend.
Technical indicators such as MACD and RSI remain cautious. India VIX has risen by around 5% to near 13.50, suggesting higher volatility. The key support level is seen at 25,000, and any upward move may face selling pressure.
Rupee Vs dollar
The rupee’s movement against the US dollar will also be closely watched. On Friday, the rupee fell 17 paise to close at 91.08 against the dollar due to foreign fund outflows and higher crude oil prices.
The currency traded in a narrow range during the session and ended weaker compared to Thursday’s close of 90.91. Analysts expect the rupee to remain under pressure amid weak domestic equities and geopolitical concerns, with a likely trading range between 90.70 and 91.20.
Meanwhile, the dollar index was slightly lower at 97.74.
IPO watch
The primary market will see limited activity this week, with only one company opening its public issue. Sedemac Mechatronics will launch its Rs 1,087 crore IPO from March 4 to March 6, with a price band of Rs 1,287–1,352 per share.
Apart from this, nine companies are expected to list on mainboard and SME platforms. Mainboard listings include Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, Shree Ram Twistex and PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery, while several SME companies are also scheduled to debut.
