Although the assembly election are not scheduled in 2016, if it happens in early 2017 (Jan-Feb), 2016 is effectively the election year. Moreover, these first six months are crucial. The rainy season will be followed by a tedious code of conduct stretching over 45 days. Practically, if any developmental work needs to executed, it has to be now, in these 6 months.
After that, the political ecosystem will be filled with comfortable realignments, tricky maneuverings, convenient romances and ruthless opportunism. And not to mention the show piece “manifestos” and sugar wrapped poll promises. So if anything needs to be achieved, it is now!
The received decisive mandate primarily because of three reasons. One “ the assurances to reverse some of the disastrous policies of the Congress-led government; two “ the uncontrolled aberrations by the then heavyweights on Goa’s socio-political landscape; and three “ hope in Manohar Parrikar.
Right now, Goa is awaiting in those ill-conceived policies; the uncontrolled aberrations continue in a “structured” manner probably on a larger scale and Manohar Parrikar and “hope” are two distinct concepts that do not go well with each other anymore.
But 2011 (the year before 2012 assembly election) and 2016 (the year before 2017 assembly election) are completely different. Here is why.
Congress is not the opposition that BJP was nor do they have a leader as articulate and aggressive as the Parrikar of 2011. They have been a frustrating opposition for a vibrant democratic set up and show no signs of recovery from the paralysis attack they deservedly suffered in 2012. All they do is hope to be back in power by piggy-banking on the disillusionment of people of Goa from this Parrikar-Parsekar joint venture. But can they?
If the Congress is not the BJP of 2011, BJP also is not the Congress of that pre election year. BJP has an organizational structure and stringent internal mechanism to assess performance of their legislators periodically. The exercise becomes more frequent as the election approaches. Invariably, BJP is going to crack whip on some of their ministers and MLAs in 2017. The party has mind and muscle to deny tickets to some their sitting legislators who are facing massive anti-incumbency. In addition, they have backing from the centre to take some of their signature projects like Mandovi or Zuari Bridge to at least half-completion. Plus, they have around 8 months in hand to rectify some of their betrayals. In my estimate, 60% of their mistakes are grievous and irreparable. 40% still have a chance and knowing BJP and their analytical acumen, they are going to take that chance
However, BJP’s biggest stumbling block is going to be the mega-policy decisions, either pending or non-reversed or in suspended animation, for which this government was primarily propelled to power. In a state like Goa, the electorate blesses an alliance with such a decisive majority not because of a leader like Parrikar or because of the insane fiefdoms Congress nurtured, but in a hope of massive policy and administrative changes as promised by the party and the leader. When this principle fundamental fails, having organizational structure and disciplined cadre or the mighty regime at the centre does not help.
With Congress, people were disillusioned and furious. With BJP people feel betrayed and disenchanted. And the feeling of betrayal always overpowers anger and frustration.
The sad part is Goa does not have a functional opposition. Luizinho Faleiro still behaves like a reluctant president. Pratapsingh Rane is in his own world. The party doesn’t want to contest municipality or panchayat election and while writing this article I am getting a text on my WhatsApp that they will do the same with the Panaji City Corporation election. In short, the “largest” opposition party is confining itself to only two elections “ assembly and parliament.
Vijai Sardesai’s plans to build a formidable “Goa Forward” or Vishwajeet Rane’s intentions to rejuvenate Sattari Yuva Morcha or Monserrate’s ploy to re-enter the not at all grand, yet old party “ UGDP, are merely the recycled versions of the erstwhile fiefdoms. None of these present legislators have a pan-Goa appeal. Their charisma practically borders on the talukas they hail from and not one of them intends to hit the magic figure of 21. In nutshell, these are different ideological, financial and personal manifestations like the present day MGP.
Can they take on the BJP?
I do not fear BJP coming back to power, nor am I afraid about Congress becoming the ruling party. My tension lies in-between. Any coalition government with strong majority is better than an unstable dispensation. We have witnessed the ridiculous yet comical nineties when our political class reduced the governing discourse of this state to a of tiatr. 2017 should not rewind it.
If Congress fails to gather its wits and the able yet rudderless young legislators embark on an electoral trip of creating multiple poll entities to preserve their hold on their respective territories, we will end up getting not a government but a terrible coalition of interests. BJP will be well below the majority mark and Congress will be nowhere near it. You can imagine what will follow.
