The Middle East stares at uncertainty a day after US withdrew from the the JCPoA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) also popularly know as the Iran nuclear deal. Much to the condemnation from its allies and other parties involved.
The agreement was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, China, Russia, Germany) and the EU after long and hard negotiations.
The deal has effectively stopped Iran from developing nuclear weapons for a ten year period, a big concession coming from a country that feels very insecure in its neighbourhood mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Israel who are close US allies.
Some of Tump’s closest advisors have often compared Iran to Iraq and given a call for the US to invade it and establish a regime that is friendly to Washington. However, it is important to remember that Iran is not Iraq of 2003, which had become a pariah after invading a fellow Sunni state of Kuwait. Tehran is a regional hegemon.
Iran has proxy groups operating close to the border of Saudi Arabia as well as Israel. Tehran has supported the Houthis in Yemen who are controlling areas close to Riyadh’s population centers, making them vulnerable to cross border attacks, while Hezbollah has always given sleepless nights to Israel. The Lebanon war of 2006 war ended in a stalemate, the first time Israel saw it being ineffective against its enemy since the day it was founded in 1948.
Iraq has fallen under the Iranian sphere of influence with several Shiite militias loyal to Tehran operating there. In Syria too, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have shed their blood to sustain the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, giving Tehran a presence in almost all the corners of the Middle East. Besides, Iran has sided with Qatar when Saudi Arabia along with its Arab allies imposed a blockade on the tiny Gulf nation.
US withdrawal from the nuclear deal doesn’t guarantee the regional security and peace as Iran had continued to provide material support to these groups even under strict sanctions.
There are two goals that US wants to achieve, one is to stop Iran from developing its ballistic missile capabilities. Second is to reduce the Iranian influence in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Gaza and Lebanon.
Washington’s European allies have, in past, showed their willingness to work with the US on negotiating with Iran in stopping it from developing its ballistic missile capabilities independent of the nuclear deal. This sounds like a pragmatic approach.
While as far involvement of Iran in the neighbouring countries depends on the how involved the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel want to be in the region. Riyadh hosted the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri a few months back and Hariri resigned from his post allegedly under Saudi pressure. He later returned to Lebanon and suspended his resignation. This seems no less outrageous than what Iran does in an attempt to control the region.
Under these circumstance it is important for the Trump administration to tone down its rhetoric against Iran and concentrate on taking its European allies into confidence to bring Iran for re-negotiations. By withdrawing from the deal, it has put Tehran under a lot of pressure as its economy is not in its best shape and fears of mass protest still loom.
It is very important that Donal Trump approaches the issue with much caution because Iran is a sovereign country with its interest in mind as well.
