Cuba is bracing for rough waters ahead as it navigates a political sea change in Latin America, where the left is fighting an outgoing tide. Venezuela is in a full-blown crisis, conservatives have taken the helm in Brazil, and Havana's leftist allies are losing ground in elections elsewhere in the region. The government of President Raul Castro, which has enjoyed smooth sailing until recently, warned in April of a "strong and articulated imperialist counteroffensive" coinciding with the economic slowdown in Latin America.
The changes mark the end of a favorable era for Cuba, one that began with Hugo Chavez's arrival in power in Venezuela in 1999, and reached a high point with the reconciliation with the United States at the end of 2014. Taken in hand by the late Venezuelan leader, Havana emerged from isolation and economic disarray in which it was left after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Friendly governments took office in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Uruguay, El Salvador, Peru and Chile.
But after Chavez's death in 2013, political conditions in Latin America began to shift, although the region's new conservative direction has only recently come into focus. This year, Venezuela's downward spiral entered a critical phase, Brazil's Dilma Rousseff was suspended to face an impeachment trial, Argentina turned its back on Nestor and Cristina Kirchner's 12 years in power, Bolivia's Evo Morales lost a referendum on extending his mandate and Ecuador is preparing to elect a successor to Rafael Correa. And what's worse: the region has had to wave goodbye to the high commodities prices that underwrote the left's most appealing social programs.
Besides being its principal trade partner, with nearly $7.3 billion in trade in 2014, Venezuela supplies Cuba with 95,000 barrels of oil a day on very favorable terms. Brazil, for its part, is one of Cuba's main suppliers of food, a source of credit and a partner in tobacco and sugar companies. Brazil and Venezuela together account for much of the $12 billion Cuba gets each year for supplying medical services to other countries, its top source of hard currency. Even as it closed ranks behind Venezuela's embattled President Nicolas Maduro, the Castro government joined critics of the legislative process in Brazil that ended in Rousseff's suspension this month. The interim government in Brasilia led by Michel Temer has responded to the Cuban criticism with a blunt reminder.
Cuba reestablished diplomatic relations with the United States in July 2015 after a half century of Cold War enmity. Even though a US embargo is still in place, the United States could play a growing role as a supplier of food and tourists to Cuba, two important lifelines.
