Is it too early to scream victory? Maybe. The meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Barack Obama certainly had that ‘champagne bottle flowing over’ feeling. But on the big ticket issue of India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, there was a feeble statement from Obama, that the US supported its entry but no ironclad commitment on whether he was in the mood to do the heavy lifting his predecessor George Bush did. A few champagne bottles popped open in India until news filtered out that the NSG was in no hurry to admit India because it still has concerns about nuclear proliferation and would prefer to first plug all the leaks in the ship before admitting India. Indications are that India might hit a roadblock when the NSG meets on June 9 and should that happen, the agenda would shift to December when Obama is on the way out.
The roadblock is likely to come in the form of China which, for strategic reasons would like to ensure that India does not become a member on equal footing with other nuclear powers. Think tanks in the US are of the opinion that China and Pakistan have played their cards quite well. Pakistan has submitted an application for admission to the NSG and Beijing will use it to keep India out by arguing that if one nuclear nation is admitted there is no reason not to admit the other. Beijing will overlook the fact that Pakistan’s nuclear status is entirely dependent on it and close its eyes to another fact, namely, that Islamabad has a dirty record on nuclear proliferation. But apart from China, a few member countries have also raised concerns, one of them being that India is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and its admission would dilute the group’s ideals.
Prestige apart, there are several reasons why India needs membership of the NSG. Following the Indo-US nuclear agreement in 2008, then US president, George Bush, personally lobbied with member countries of the NSG to grant India a waiver which gave it access to nuclear technology and fuel. The waiver was opposed by China which eventually backed down once it was isolated in the group. However, there is advanced nuclear technology outside the NSG which is out of India’s reach. Also, India has committed to reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and increasing the share of energy from renewal sources and nuclear power is critical to this mix. Lastly, since all decision in the NSG are taken by consensus, which means a handful on nations can block a decision, India could keep Pakistan out, if it enters first.
Despite not being a signatory to the NPT, India has a strong case. It is a responsible nuclear power. It is committed to separating its civilian and military nuclear programmes. As of 2009, nearly 35 civilian nuclear establishments have been brought under the inspection regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency and it has a strong and credible record on non-proliferation. Also, its position as a world leader and growing economy has earned it a seat at the nuclear table. So, it’s just a matter of time before India makes a grand entry.
