A power struggle is emerging between Saudi Arabia's two most powerful princes, analysts and diplomats say, as the secretive kingdom confronts some of its biggest challenges in years. The Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, falling oil prices and rising jihadist violence are putting the country's leadership to the test, nine months after King Salman assumed the throne following the death of king Abdullah. The kingdom's rulers have also faced criticism for last month's hajj tragedy which, according to foreign officials, killed more than 2,200 people in a stampede at the annual Muslim pilgrimage.
With concerns over the long-term health of 79-year-old Salman, jockeying for influence has intensified, experts say. At the centre are the two designated heirs to the 271-year-old House of Saud, which has ruled Saudi Arabia since its emergence as a modern state. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the king's 56-year-old nephew, is first in line to the throne but Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, believed to be about 30, is Salman's son and a rising power. Mohammed bin Nayef is interior minister while Mohammed bin Salman runs the defence ministry, and their growing rivalry is making itself felt, experts say.
Tensions between the two princes emerged after the king's shock removal six months ago of Crown Prince Moqren, who had been appointed as the country's first deputy crown prince by Abdullah. In the months since, the younger Mohammed bin Salman has moved to shore up his power, analysts say. In addition to being defence minister, Mohammed bin Salman heads the kingdom's main economic coordinating council as well as a body overseeing Saudi Aramco, the state oil company in the world's biggest petroleum exporter.
Diplomats view Salman's removal in September of Saad al-Jabri -- a minister of state and cabinet member associated with Mohammed bin Nayef -- as one sign of the struggle. But there has not been a broader move against the interior minister, who is widely respected abroad for having led Saudi efforts against Al-Qaeda and other jihadists.
The crown prince has the loyalty of interior ministry forces, and most members of the royal family would support his ultimate rise to the throne as "something normal," a diplomat says. If a powerful faction were ready to move against the crown prince, whose police were responsible for security at the hajj, the stampede would have provided an opportunity, he says.
On the other side of the rivalry, diplomats say some in the royal family are quietly uneasy about Mohammed bin Salman's handling of the war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition supporting the government against Iran-backed Shiite Huthi rebels. The war, the cost of which has not been revealed, comes with the kingdom cutting government spending, tapping into its financial reserves and issuing debt to deal with a record budget deficit after oil prices dropped by more than half since early last year.
For now, analysts and diplomats say, the rivalry appears contained and there is little chance that the House of Saud will implode. "People have been writing off the al-Saud for a long time for various reasons," the Western diplomat says. "They're still here... still an island of stability in the Middle East."
