PANAJI
BJP candidate and sitting Chief Minister of the state Manohar Parrikar has expressed confidence of winning the seat with a historic margin of 9,000 votes. On the other hand, sources from Congress revealed that party candidate and All India Congress Committee secretary Girish Chodankar is eyeing the 10,000 mark with a victory margin of at least 2,000, a feat in itself because no Congress candidate has ever polled over 5,500 votes in Panaji.
The graph of victory margins enjoyed by the winning candidate in Panaji from 1994 Assembly elections to 2017 Assembly elections shows that the margin peaked in 2012 polls at 6,068.
The then winning BJP candidate Parrikar polled a whopping 11,086 votes, 66.13 per cent of the total 16,763 valid votes, as against the 5,018 votes secured by Congress candidate Yatin Parekh. BJP benefitted tremendously from the swing of over 11 per cent votes in its favour.
Though the margin decreased by 1,447 votes at the 2015 bypolls, it afforded an easy victory to BJP candidate Siddharth Kuncalienkar, who filled Parrikar's shoes after the latter was raised to the position of Union Defence Minister.
The recent Assembly elections, however, witnessed Kuncalienkar scrape a victory with a narrow margin of 1,069 votes against Congress-backed United Goans Party candidate Atanasio "Babush" Monserrate.
The 15 per cent swing registered against Kuncalienkar merely six months ago may spell a worrying trend for BJP. Incidentally, this is one of the lowest victory margins for a BJP candidate in Panaji till date, coming a full circle with the margin of 1,066 votes registered by Parrikar in his maiden Assembly election victory in 1994. Since then, Parrikar has polled over 50 per cent of the votes in Panaji.
The size of Panaji's electorate presently stands at around 22,000 and the voter turnout has traditionally been high, even for a by-poll. In February this year, 78 per cent of Panaji's voters stepped out and cast their ballot.
Sources from Congress predict that the decision of Aam Admi Party not to field its candidate in order to consolidate secular votes complemented by the presence of Goa Suraksha Manch candidate in Panaji could work in favour of the Congress, which already has a fixed votebank of at least 4,500 voters in the constituency.
"We are hoping for a high voter turnout as the holiday season begins a day after the polls. Panaji's voters have expressed tremendous anger against the BJP for stealing the mandate given by Goans to Congress at the recent Assembly elections. Congress party hopes that this seething fury will transform into votes on August 23," a source disclosed while pointing out that the Congress MLA Joao Baptista Florini Gonsalves has held the seat for two consecutive terms in 1984 and 1989.
As has been the recent trend, Bahujan Samaj will have the loudest voice in Panaji, followed closely by the Catholic community. These two sections together form a dominant chunk of around 15,000 votes in the constituency and on August 23, their votes will seal the fate of the coalition government.
Indeed, a lot is at stake in Panaji. For the BJP, a victory will ensure a stable tenure. For the Congress, it offers a glimmer of hope for forming the government. But it is the voters of Panaji, who choose between these political ambitions to suit their reality.
