MARGAO
Will Goa Forward Party chief Vijai Sardesai score a hat-trick of sorts to play his third successive political innings from Fatorda on March 10? Or, will the two-time former MLA Damu Naik finally get the better of his arch political rival and make a comeback after defeats in 2012 and 2017?
Both, the two-time sitting MLA and the two-time former MLA, are not ready to concede defeat in the 2022 husting, with the duo exuding confidence of winning the election. While Sardesai claimed that he would retain the seat by a 1,500-plus vote margin, Damu says political pundits will be shocked and surprised on the counting day, predicting his victory by a 4,000-vote margin.
Both the camps have been eyeing each other's traditional vote base to make it to the Goa Legislative Assembly. While Sardesai did not leave a single stone unturned to make inroads into the BJP vote in the last three years, more so after he had propped up the Manohar Parrikar-led BJP government in 2017, Damu did not lag in this game. In fact, the BJP candidate went about systematically, wooing the minority community, with stress on the crucial Scheduled Tribe vote, in a bid to capitalize on the sentiment against the sitting MLA amongst the Catholics after his decision to bring the BJP to power in 2017.
With just nine days to go for the counting on March 10, the million-dollar question that remains unanswered is -- whether BJP’s traditional vote has split to support the Goa Forward Party chief or whether a section of the minorities has pressed on the Lotus symbol button this time around, just to teach Sardesai a lesson?
Says Sardesai: “I am confident of retaining Fatorda by a comfortable margin. When Fatorda recorded around 22,000 polling on February 14, our calculations showed that we had already crossed the halfway mark. Even assuming a majority of the remaining vote does not come to me, I should sail through comfortably”.
Damu, on the other hand, is banking on the “bonus” vote expected to come to him from the minorities and other sections of voters.
“This is my fifth election from Fatorda, having won two and lost two elections. For the first time, the minorities had welcomed me with open arms across the constituency. I am confident that this vocal support from the minorities will be converted into votes to give me the victory”, he said.
Both the players have been trying to assess how the presence of the other contestants in the fray would affect their electoral prospects.
In the 2017 election, the Aam Aadmi Party had polled close to 1,500 votes, which many say had reduced Sardesai’s margin of victory. This time around, not only AAP but the Trinamool Congress Party and Revolutionary Goans Party are in the fray for the Fatorda seat.
In fact, all eyes are focused on TMC candidate, Adv Seoula Vas. Though she entered late in the battlefield on the TMC banner, local observers say Seoula's presence in the fray may have a bearing on the result.
Incidentally, the Goa Forward Party camp is of the opinion that Sardesai may not face any major threat from these three parties if their total vote share does not cross the 1,000-figure mark. The Damu camp, however, is optimistic that the three parties taken together will make deep inroads into the Goa Forward vote, a situation that would pave the way for his victory.
BJP’s calculation appears simple in Fatorda “ that Damu would retain the party traditional vote, poll a substantial minority vote this time around and that the other non-BJP players will make inroads into the Goa Forward vote.
On the other hand, Sardesai has a simple question for the BJP candidate and political observers “ will the minorities still vote for the BJP when there’s been a strong anti-BJP sentiment prevailing across the State against the ruling dispensation?
A stronghold of the Congress since the time Fatorda was carved out of the erstwhile Fatorda constituency in 1989, former minister and ST leader, late Luis Alex Cardozo had won the seat thrice from 1989-1999. Congress conceded the seat to the alliance partner Goa Forward Party in the 2022 election as part of a pact between the two parties to avoid a split in the non-BJP vote.
Damu, however, exuded confidence that the alliance will not be able to save the two-time sitting MLA and has begged to differ.
