MARGAO
A major takeaway of the Lok Sabha election for the South Goa seat, many say, is the success of the INDI Alliance experiment as the coming together of the non-BJP parties -- Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Goa Forward Party, Nationalist Congress Party and the Trinamool Congress helped to keep a surging BJP at bay.
Consider this. As news trickled out from the counting centre around noon on June 4 that Captain Viriato Fernandes was cruising towards victory, not only did the Congress camp burst into jubilations, the INDI Alliance leaders too joined in the celebrations over the imminent victory. The leaders of Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and the Goa Forward held their hands in unison, all thundering in front of the media that the alliance is the way forward as they vowed to take the alliance to the 2027 Assembly elections due in two and a half years from now.
Alliance, a way forward?
The bonhomie amongst the alliance leaders was understandable given that the alliance did help to avert a split in the non-BJP vote, especially in minority-dominated Salcete where major partners, the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and the Goa Forward Party have in the past crossed swords against each others to have a slice of the non-BJP vote cake. Political observers have attributed Congress’ increase in the lead over the BJP in a couple of segments in Salcete to the unity of INDI Alliance.
One can get an insight into how the alliance has helped to win the Lok Sabha election with a glance at the 2019 parliamentary election statistics. For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party in 2019 polled 20,891 votes, a major chunk of these votes, around 14,000 votes, came from the eight Assembly segments from Salcete. With the AAP on board this time, the INDIA bloc helped to consolidate the non-BJP vote, benefiting the Congress candidate.
Fatorda is another case in point. If there is one single factor that gave an unprecedented 2437-vote lead for the Congress in Fatorda, it is primarily due to the consolidation of the non-BJP vote because of the coming together of Cong, AAP and the Goa Forward under one banner.
Assembly election an acid test
An Assembly election, they say, is a different ball game. Unlike the Lok Sabha election, where there are just two seats at stake in Goa and alliance partners, other than the Congress having no wherewithal to contest, the coming Assembly election will be an acid test for the alliance partners.
In fact, the road to the 2027 Assembly elections isn’t going to be a smooth one for the INDI Alliance. Reason. The alliance partners will not be fighting an election for one or two Lok Sabha seats, but as many as 40 Assembly seats, with each of the alliance partners enjoying their areas of influence.
Presently, of these 40 seats, three are represented by the Congress, two by the AAP and a lone seat of Fatorda by the Goa Forward Party. How would the Alliance, including Cong, AAP, GF, NCP, TMC and Shiv Sena, go about resolving the thorny issue of seat-sharing remains to be seen, given that many of these seats were earlier held by the Congress before the party lost the seats in the Assembly election, followed by defection by the elected MLAs.
Longevity of the Alliance
It’s an open secret that the INDIA bloc was stitched at the national level with the one-point agenda to checkmate the BJP and to "save democracy and constitution" before the alliance was taken forward to the different States.
Against this backdrop, sources say the longevity of the alliance in Goa may depend on the political situation at the national level. Already Cong and AAP have fought the Lok Sabha election in Punjab and reports emanating from the national capital now say the AAP is not averse to going alone in the Assembly election in Delhi. Amongst the alliance partners, observers say the Congress will have to grapple with the AAP factor if something goes wrong in Delhi.
Leaders vs workers
Alliance leaders, sources say, are all for taking the INDI Alliance forward. How about the workers of these parties down in the constituencies, who have set their eyes on the 2027 Assembly election?
Well, alliance partners, more particularly the Congress and the AAP, will have to tread a cautious path on the road to the 2027 State polls. For, unlike the Goa Forward, the NCP or the TMC, which have influence in certain constituencies, both the Cong and AAP had crossed swords against each other in most of the constituencies in the last two elections.
Second-rung leaders of these parties must have been bracing up for the 2027 electoral battle. How to handle the prospective candidates is a million-dollar question, as one can hear voices of dissent against the alliance in certain segments.
