Many cities will witness some semblance of normalcy this weekend with no compulsory restrictions in place even though India’s infection average is 2.5 lakh cases. This spells relief for contact intensive businesses such as eateries. Research shows that the pandemic induced lockdowns shuttered 25 per cent of the restaurants leading to the retrenchment of 25 lakh employees. During the current third wave states have linked mobility restrictions to the extent of stress in the healthcare infrastructure, going forward this should be the primary metric to guide contagion containment decisions. Another Holy Grail which needs to be abolished is differentiating between essential and non-essential businesses to decide on lockdowns; every activity howsoever small and seemingly insignificant generates jobs and arbitrary discrimination not only undermines livelihoods but aggravates socio-economic stress. Gyms too have been amongst the worst-hit businesses and the ban on them still continues long after proscriptive directives on other activities have been lifted. One of the unheralded aspects of the country’s services sector is that it provides employment to low skilled or unskilled youth, most of whom acquire new skillsets on the job which opens up the pathway to upward mobility and a better quality of life. Also, the medium, small and micro enterprises don’t have intrinsic robustness, cash reserves or wherewithal to sustain frequent closure diktats. They are the most resource and asset stressed sector of the industry. Think of the millions of additional families leading a hand-to-mouth existence today due to many downstream jobs impacted by the pandemic over the course of the last two years. A risk-benefit analysis should always be done before imposition of lockdowns, the Indian economy has already taken a massive hit, another punch and it will land in the ICU again.
