As cases surge, many are wondering if the race for a vaccine will bear fruit as early as January 2021.
Here is where the current research stands, where we will be in five months and why you can be optimistic about the delivery of a Covid-19 vaccine.
1. Immune system cures Covid
In as many as 99% of all Covid-19 cases, patients recover from infection. Some of those who have had Covid may have low levels of virus in the body for up to 3 months after infection. But in most cases these individuals can no longer transmit the virus to other people 10 days after first becoming sick.
It should therefore be much easier to make a vaccine for Covid than for infections such as HIV where the immune system fails to cure it naturally. SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t mutate the way that HIV does, making it a much easier target for the immune system to subdue or for a vaccine to control.
2. Antibodies targeting spike protein prevent infection
A vaccine will protect, in part, by inducing production of antibodies against spike protein on the surface of SARS-CoV-2.
The virus needs the spike protein to attach to and enter human cells to reproduce. Researchers have shown that antibodies, like those made by the human immune system, bind to the spike protein, neutralize it and prevent the coronavirus from infecting cells in laboratory culture.
At least 7 companies have developed monoclonal antibodies, that recognize spike protein. These antibodies are entering clinical trials to test their ability to prevent infection in those who are exposed, for example, through a household contact.
3. Spike glycoprotein contains multiple targets
Spike protein has many locations where antibodies can bind to and neutralize the virus. That’s good news because with so many vulnerable spots, it will be difficult for the virus to mutate to avoid a vaccine.
4. We know how to make a safe vaccine
One side effect seen in the past was allergic reaction as seen in respiratory syncytial virus vaccine in the 1960s. However, researchers have now learned how to design vaccines to avoid such responses.
5. Several vaccines in development, phase III trials underway
Governments everywhere are supporting the development of different vaccines, thus hedging their bets. Only one of these vaccines needs to prove safe and effective in clinical trials for a Covid vaccine to be made available by 2021.
Already results from 3 different trials are promising. Moderna, Oxford and Chinese company CanSino have all demonstrated the safety of their vaccines in phase I and phase II trials.
6. Distributors being contracted already
Large vaccine distributors are already being contracted to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine to sites where the vaccine will be administered.
Sometime in late 2020, we will know whether some vaccines are safe, exactly how effective they are and which ones should be used to vaccinate the population in 2021.
