The prospect of a failed monsoon at home poses biggerproblems for India than the spike in global prices for corn, soybeans and wheatresulting from America's worst drought since the days of the dustbowl,agriculture experts here said. “The wisdom of India’s decision to build andmaintain large grain reserves is now clear, considering the extreme volatilityin international prices,” said M S Swaminathan, the agricultural scientist,known as the father of the green revolution, which made India self-sufficientin the late 1960s. India is, indeed, facing a food crisis of its own. But ithas nothing to do with shortages or international prices.
Under a long-running welfare program, the government buysrice and wheat from farmers at a subsidized “minimum support price” to protectthem from volatile markets. And though this grain is intended for sale to thepoor at below market rates, problems with the distribution system prevent thegovernment from releasing its supply, even as a fifth of its citizens remainundernourished. So as the rest of the world faces the specter of food riots dueto skyrocketing prices, India is sitting on more than 80 million tons inreserves.
With millions of its own people already going hungry,however, India will not export its stockpile to take advantage of higherinternational prices. And the government is likely to reinstate curbs on foodgrain exports as the year progresses, due to the growing prospect of a failedmonsoon. India's metereological department is now forecasting below-normalrainfall, following a 22 percent shortfall over the first two months of therainy season. “In the 2007 food crisis, 37 countries faced food riots. Allthese countries were food-importing countries. Today, the situation is againthat there will be food riots in many countries. But India escaped that time,and India will escape now also, because we have still not integrated ouragriculture globally,” said Sharma. “The world must draw a lesson from whatIndia has done.”
