A leadership crisis which was quietly simmering within and outside the government over the past few months has suddenly taken a strange turn. After all the family pressure and Manohar Parrikar’s half-a-mind to let go, the Goa Forward has pulled the hand-brake on moves to cobble up a temporary leader. When Vijai walked in with the three independent MLAs, his message was loud and clear to the BJP observers that he is not going to take things lying down.
Till Saturday, the number game was delicately balanced with neither of the players in a position to drive home the advantage. For a brief moment, albeit temporarily, there were indications that the Goa Forward has buried the hatchet and cleared the decks for PWD Minister Sudin Dhavalikar, one who is considered senior-most within the ruling dispensation. But that was not to be. After a late brain-storming Goa Forward stepped back on Saturday, forcing the administration to withdraw an almost-ready proposal. And on Sunday, it was sheer show time.
But why did Goa Forward object to the standby arrangement of Dhavalikar’s leadership? Here is why. For all the camaraderie that we have seen in the Parrikar-appointed Cabinet Advisory Committee and the core group, there remains a deep chasm between the ideologically separated MGP and GF. Underneath the surface, the differences between Dhavalikar and GF Supremo Vijai Sardesai are irreconcilable and against the backdrop of such an equation naming Dhavalikar as the successor would obviously mean putting the government on shaky ground.
If the GF accepts this so-called temporary arrangement, there would be no logic to reject Dhavalikar subsequently, as and when he is installed full-time. Goa Forward’s decision not to support any interim arrangement, while agreeing to find out a long-term solution, is in fact a smart political move to say ‘no’ to Dhavalikar. This gives a clear indication, that even if talks of MGP merging into the BJP fructify, the Goa Forward will still not be in a position to accept Dhavalikar as the chief ministerial candidate. From GF’s standpoint, merging would only mean changing ‘colours’.
On the other side of the fence, BJP, who at one point were firm on choosing one of their MLAs, failed to arrive at a consensus. The party found itself split in multiple groups, each supporting or opposing their own men. Names like Speaker Pramod Sawant and even Union Ayush Minister and senior-most party leader Shripad Naik failed to find favour across the board.
Yet another dimension to this script surfaces if a new Chief Minister is taking oath, since this would mean that a vote of confidence will follow. Given the delicate mathematical equation, the ruling cannot afford any drop in count now, since the health of three of its key ministers continues to remain unstable.
The Goa Forward has in one stroke put itself in an indispensable position and with an added strength of three independents, the government will be hanging by a thin thread extended by Sardesai and his men. It now remains to be seen how Amit’s Shah’s central team manages to navigate through the crisis.
