Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the nation by surprise with an early Friday morning announcement that the three farm laws will be repealed in the upcoming parliament session while stating that he has failed to win over a section of farmers. An open apology to the nation is uncharacteristic of Modi, but the reconciliatory tone indicates that the PM, who has stoutly battled for farm reforms, has now realized that he is on shaky ground in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh.
If we may recall, the government and senior ministers had strongly rooted for the farm laws and refused to budge on the concerns and demands of the farmers. Protracted negotiations, including the Supreme Court’s intervention, failed to cut ice. There were road blockades, hunger strikes and protest marches. In an unfortunate turn of events, agitated farmers stormed the Red Fort on Republic Day this year by bulldozing barricades and roadblocks. Fierce clashes that followed saw one protester killed and several farmers and policemen injured. The year-long agitation has seen farmers braving inclement weather and chilly nights with around 700 people losing their lives.
The tone and tenor of PM have now changed. He appealed, “I request farmers to return to their homes, their farms and their families, and I request them to start afresh." So, why the climb-down now? The PM apologised and accepted his government’s failure, but stayed away from speaking on what prompted this decision. For a government that has been resolute and unmoved by a huge human tragedy that was unfolding in front of them, retracting at this juncture could only mean that the BJP is feeling threatened by a political fallout on account of the agitating farmers. The party has taken a calculated decision even though it is conceding an advantage to the Opposition to launch an offensive.
Realisation has dawned upon the BJP that the farmers' agitation will jeopardize their electoral math in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, especially the western part of the State which has 70 seats. Electoral equations have vastly changed since 2017 and the BJP may find the going tough. The party’s internal survey has found that the Jats are turning their back, and the Opposition is exploiting the farmer issue like an open goldmine. Also, BJP pockets are facing a threat in Punjab and Haryana.
That the farmers are not ready to accept the PM's words and want to wait for the parliament session to repeal the laws to end their protest shows the level of distrust in the government. The damage has been done, and the scars from the sustained agitation would not heal so soon. While the farmers go into a celebratory mode and sink into the moment, questions will still be asked over what they have endured for 358 days, over the lives lost and over the defiance of the government.
A decision has been made to repeal the farm laws, but indications are that this alone will not suffice to win back the confidence of farmers. It remains to be seen how the government proceeds with the demand over minimum support price and withdrawing cases registered against farmers. The hurt will still be there, and Modi will have to engage people with more pro-farmer measures to try and resurrect the party fortunes.
