The outcome of the by-elections to fill two seats-- Valpoi and Panaji becoming prematurely vacant on account of political power games of the self-proclaimed principled BJP was a foregone conclusion. Panaji has stood with the BJP since 1994 (7 consecutive times). The Congress was returned to power only twice since 1967, the last being in 1989. Needless to say, the Congress never attempted to create any semblance of a field base to fight a constituency election. They allowed Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate to be their sort of political franchisee. In a similar fashion, the two constituencies of Sattari were tied in the cottage of the Rane clan. Vishwajeet Rane is perceived as the uncrowned king of Valpoi since 2007 and the father-son duo has ensured that the Congress organization in no way sprouts in what they boast with ‘democratic' pride as their provinces.
Easy to shrinking margin
At the start, it looked like a cake-walk for the two BJP candidates. With the Congress in disarray and none voluntarily ready to take on the CM and Health Minister, the elections were expected to end as a token democratic exercise. But, as voting day comes closer, talk revolves around low margins of victory for the BJP. Parrikar quipped in the state assembly that Congress candidate Girish Chodankar would forfeit the deposit. Later, addressing the BJP karyakartas, he ignited them for a victory margin of 12,000. BJP workers are toying for 6000 and the most self-centred chameleon politician Sudin Dhavlikar pegs it to 3500. Both BJP candidates have receded from their luxury zones as ground realities are making them sweat it out to emerge first past the post in this race even though they stand in the most advantaged position.
Having said this, it is necessary to add that I have yet to meet a Panaji or Valpoi local who doubts of Parrikar's and Vishwajeet's victory. It would be unrealistic to assume that Goa Suraksha Manch can make any substantial division of votes to influence the results. The GSM candidate is more of an irritant for Parrikar rather than the BJP. A few votes which fall in the GSM kitty will be of hard core veteran BJP loyalists who are out to teach a bitter lesson to Parrikar for what they consider as deceit and duplicity and who find voting directly for Congress as be a sin. That Panaji is electing the Chief Minister of Goa makes the field fundamentally uneven for any opposition candidate. So, is the case in Valpoi where the BJP candidate is the confirmed Health Minister in the present cabinet. Added to this is the aura of Parrikar which still exists though it has lost its shine and there is a substantial subtraction of blind admirers.
Gains without loss
Whatever is the outcome, I hold that the Congress has nothing to lose as this party had nothing to be called as a fighting base in both these constituencies. So, whatever the Congress party can milk would be a net gain for future. With the recent political jump of Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate to the Goa Forward Party and withdrawal from electoral fray after raising expectations, I feel he is on the verge of losing his clout in Panaji. BJP is also keeping him at arm's length from campaign to avoid the fall out of his negative image on their voter base and the key party organizers. BJP wants the toppings on their pizza from the Taleigaon strongman, but they are not prepared to give him entry in their kitchen. For Parrikar to be perceived as honest, clean and upright; Monserrate and the likes should lend support and stay invisible appears to be the BJP politics. Atanasio Monserrate exit from election fray can prove good for the Congress party to plant itself de nouveau in Panaji and neighbouring constituencies.
The entry of Girish Chodankar in the capital could also bear out good for his political future. All poked fun at his cost by describing him as the lamb taken to the slaughterhouse. He is in the ring facing the Chief Minister who is decked up with the boots and gloves supported by beneficiaries and cheerleaders. Unexpectedly, he is doing well to keep the torch of democracy lit and the flickering flame of his party burning. Whatever acceptability the Congress party candidate is receiving is the voter's protest and expression of disgust at the manner in which the BJP descended to form the government after losing the popular mandate. Some gains will accrue also because of the gap between the projected image of Parrikar and the reality becoming open day by day. As a community, Saraswats are expected to stand with Parrikar. Minorities are expected to rally behind Congress as wounds of ugly usurpation of power are still fresh.
The Bhandari Samaj continues to perceive Parrikar as their leader. It would be an exciting finish if a reasonable dent occurs here. Girish Chodankar has climbed the ladder of boldness and has grown in public esteem. A defeat at the hands of the all powerful Parrikar is no loss whatsoever. He has been successful in carving his image as that of a young Congress foot soldier of good character taking on the king of falsehood and lies.
Tale ending!
It is expected that this tale will end with BJP winning both seats. I also do not find necessary and sufficient reasons to keep my fingers crossed. But, a different ending will send strong signals to politicians and political parties. It will unmake the government. It will dethrone the over-confident monarch of Sattari. It will arrest destroyers of democracy. Politicians who have sunk politics to the rock bottom would be spanked with the desired notice and put on guard.
