There’s a new trend of naming every issue that captures global or local attention these days. One of the biggest trends today is the Brexit, the United Kingdom’s proposed exit from the European Union. But Brexit isn’t a trivial issue that can be swept under the carpet. For thousands of Goans in the UK and their relatives in Portugal, France and in Goa, Brexit has many consequences, most of them detrimental to Goans in Europe.
For years now, analysts and politicians have been claiming the EU and the UK are not on the same page when it comes to economic and political sovereignty. There are also claims that UK’s social objectives are different from the EU’s. All this sets the foundation for Brexit and sovereignty in all aspects. This will also massively lower the burden on the economy and the social welfare schemes from other European citizens, who draw out money as benefits.
Where does this leave the European Goan? Right in the middle of it, would be an apt answer. Records from 2014 state that over 20,000 Goans walked into the UK. This is just from one year. Considering that most Goans who have been there for about five years would be affected, this would multiply to approximately one lakh. But these are speculative figures. Whatever be the number, the reality would be that all Goans with Portuguese passports, who do not hold any British citizenship, or the right to indefinite leave, may have to exit the UK, if the country exits Europe. Even for those who have the right to remain indefinitely, they may not be able to avail of benefits, as premier David Cameron aims to put the brakes on social welfare for about four years. Goans who cannot stay in the UK would have to go back to Portugal, or other countries to work, return to India, or perhaps apply for work permits and visas to the UK. The latter option though may not be realistically possibly until the UK stabilises its economy.
Many analysts feel that the UK leaving the EU will be economic suicide, as companies cannot look at Europe as one big market but now have to create a different policy for the UK market in terms of pricing as well as work permits for many of their employees. An Open Europe report estimated that the worst case scenario would be a 2.2 percent drop in GDP or a 1.6 rise in GDP as a best case scenario if the UK does split. What would be dented worse though, would be the bloc’s hopes for a super state.
For the lakhs of Goans in the UK, June 23 is D-Day, although it will take another two years for everything to materialise. January 1, 2018 is when the UK will split from the EU, if the 38 percent for increase and take percentage points away from the 37% who want to stay or the 25 percent who are undecided.
If Syrians, Jordanians and others can work and live in Germany , Poland, Italy and other countries, there is no reason why Goans who don’t qualify for the UK under the new rules, split or no split. What remains to be seen is what happens on June 23. Until then, all Goans in Europe can do is have a plan B.
