Decks have been cleared for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan following the peace deal inked between the United States and Taliban in Qatar’s capital Doha on Saturday, thus bringing an end, if the terms & conditions of the agreement between the two are not flouted, to the longest ever war America has fought which started after the fall of the twin towers in September 2001.
The US will initially cut the size of its troops in Afghanistan to around 8,600 before a complete withdrawal in 14 months, provided the militant group snaps ties with al Qaeda and other terrorist groups and come to the negotiating table for intra-Afghan talks with Kabul government, as mentioned in the pact.
All said and done, India as a neighbour can’t be ignorant to the historical events taking place in its backyard, especially in the backdrop of it being globally one of the major donors of aid to Afghanistan. But, that leaves us with one big question: where does India stand in the above scheme of things once US bids goodbye to war-torn Afghanistan?
Over $2 billion of aid pumped in by India into its neighbouring country which it thinks is vital from security point of view could come to a naught if bolstered by the US withdrawal, Taliban with support from Russia and Pakistan regroup their cadres and go on a bloody trail as they did before the US ‘invasion’ of Afghanistan, who can say that another civil war wouldn’t be in the making.
Indian stakes in Afghanistan which it uses as an opening for supply routes with the Central Asian markets to exploit energy reserves could be looking down the precipice if instability grips the latter. One project that could take a big hit is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project which aims to abate both India and Pakistan’s energy demands, providing 42% energy to each and the remaining to Afghanistan along with transit revenue, if Taliban once again ushers in radicalism in the region.
And for Pakistan, it’s a win-win situation owing to its role as a facilitator in the peace talks between the US and Taliban in Doha, though India and representatives of several other countries were present when the deal was signed. Rewards for the enemy neighbour could be aplenty - more funds and arms from the US to fight terror and most likely the country will eject from the grey list of Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The international terror financing watchdog had warned Pakistan of stern action for its failure in combating money laundering and terror financing.
Afghanistan, which heavily relies on International aid, India included, is still ridden with corruption, and what if US’ efforts to put in place a democratic system in the country bites the dust if Taliban, which banned girls from schools and women from public life, becomes dominant again.
What does India gain? Nothing! On the contrary, the developments will only add to its miseries with terror groups in Afghanistan going jobless after the US troops withdrawal, only to be reemployed by Pakistan and pushed into Kashmir where guns seem to have fallen silent to a great extent after the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A.
Let’s wait to see what’s in store for India in the near future?
