We have a government, but for how long? The present dispensation, which was sworn in with Manohar Parrikar as chief minister, is a mish-mash of like-minded chaps and strange bedfellows. It is a government cobbled together from the ruins of the BJP. It is a government that was put together with amazing speed and therefore is riddled with contradictions. Two of the three members of the Goa Forward Party defeated BJP ministers. Independent candidate Govind Gaude defeated MGP leader Sudin Dhavalikar’s brother and he is now a cabinet minister. Vijai Sardessai’s position is slightly different because he defeated Damu Naik of the BJP twice in Fatorda. The question is how will Parrikar rebuild the party in these constituencies and simultaneously keep the government together? This is why we think this arrangement will not last long unless Parrikar splits the Congress, because 17 MLAs in the opposition is a recipe for destabilisation.
The other problem faced by Parrikar and the BJP is how to regain the party core. Of the 13 MLA-elect in the BJP, seven belong to the minority community. In fact all the six minority community MLAs of the BJP got re-elected with Mauvin Godinho adding to the total. In contrast, the Congress actually regained lost ground in this election and could have romped home quite comfortably if its leaders had exploited the anti-BJP sentiment to the hilt. It regained Salcete, which was its stronghold and won Ponda and Shiroda, thanks to the lack of a pre-poll arrangement between the BJP and MGP.
The MGP and the BJP are natural allies and Dhavalikar must have realised by now that the lack of an alliance hurt him as well. His party lost Ponda and Priol while the BJP lost Shiroda and Pernem. However, there is one factor which makes the MGP restive and that is the loss of Deepak Dhavalikar to Govind Gaude who is now a minister. In an interview to The Goan, Dhavalikar made it very clear that the Congress was his first choice, but they could not decide on a leader. Will his equation with the BJP change once the Congress sorts out its leadership issues? He will keep his options open for now.
In this equation, the Goa Forward Party is a strange bedfellow. Despite fighting against the BJP and lambasting Parrikar, the GFP has joined hands with it. At some stage, Vijai Sardessai, Jayesh Salgaonkar and Vinod Palienkar will have to ask themselves if their future lies with the BJP or as a regional party. Perhaps, it is best to take this one day at a time. Lastly, Parrikar might be the chief minister, but he is head of a very unstable unit and therefore severely weakened. One wonders if he jumped from the frying pan of Delhi into the fire of Goa.
