Gujarat is one of the most urbanized states and the victory has proved that BJP is still strong in cities, and contrary to expectations, the BJP still managed to get significant chunks of the Patel community votes. The much propagated GST and DeMo factors had no impact in the heartland of Surat which was most vocal against the new tax regime.
However, as the saffron brigade sits down for a post-mortem and tries to assess what went wrong in their projected target of 150 seats, the Hardik Patel factor will be on top of their mind. Congress' huge gains in the Kutch-Saurashtra belt will be debated where the party had ignored the Patedar agitation. Also, on the agenda will be two burning issues that hit the party in the run-up to polls - youth unemployment and distressed farmers.
For the Congress, there were a few self-goals that they suffered during the course. The Pakistan-link, the Neech talk of Mani Shankar Aiyar and Vaghela's decision to field candidates in over 100 seats, all hurt the Congress. While it's a heart-warming win for BJP, it's not all gloom for the Congress party. Congress has made serious inroads in BJP strongholds and has given the saffron party a run for its money in their own den, a State which was considered their bastion from 1962 to 1985. It may be recalled the Congress managed only 61 seats in the 2012 poll, while the BJP romped home with 115 seats in the 182-member Assembly.
The grand old party's move to fight the BJP with Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor as charioteers got them their best ever results in Gujarat and this could well be a trigger to try similar experiments in other states, including Goa, where the party is fighting battles from within with old war horses lining up against the young brigade. The Gujarat poll should signal winds of change for Congress.
For Rahul Gandhi, this is a crucial battle lost, but by no measure this can be counted as his first electoral test after assuming the party presidentship. On the contrary, Rahul will emerge stronger and confident as he gears up for bigger political battles.
BJP will chant ‘Vikasvaad wins' in Gujarat and Himachal, but the result will send a stern warning to incumbent governments in Karnataka , MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Congress should take heart from the fact that they managed to take the fight to the BJP in their own backyard which they ruled for 22 years and get its highest tally in 25 years. Although State elections cannot be compared to National-level polls, the Gujarat result will however make the Lok Sabha election an open battle. It's game on for 2019 polls.
