With the elections done and dusted and the new government likely to begin its innings from next week, the time is right to take a look at the players that led from the forefront in selling the story of BJP’s invincibility. Come Saturday evening, after the last phase of voting concluded, the mainstream TV media was inundated with exit poll ‘predictions’ that, claiming to have their ear to the ground, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi was set for a third time in office with an even bigger mandate with some even predicting that the BJP would win 370 seats on its own -- echoing a target that the Prime Minister had set for itself.
It is of course well known that the exit polls were off the mark en masse with nearly all of them overestimating the ruling BJP’s final tally to the point that the mood in the Opposition camp was completely deflated. In fact most supporters of the Opposition parties and right thinking individuals went to bed on the night of June 3 with a sense of dread about what might be in store for the country the following day.
This brings us to the question of what exactly transpired in the run up to the publication of the exit polls. It is a well known fact that exit polls tend to not be completely accurate. While there have been some hits, there have also been a fair share of misses.
The question that arises, however, is why is it that the exit polls never err on the side of the Congress or whichever party the BJP is contesting against. It’s a theme that runs consistently across elections. Take for instance the Karnataka state assembly elections held last year. Only one among several pollsters was able to predict the extent of the Congress win with a majority predicting either a hung house or a win for the BJP.
Similarly during the West Bengal elections held in 2021, none of the pollsters predicted the BJP’s poor showing and a win for Mamata Banerjee. In fact it can now be safely concluded that overestimating the BJP’s performance is a feature of exit polls.
The question that follows, then, is why do they do this?
Ever since the results of the Lok Sabha elections became clear, revealing just how wrong the polls were, reports emerged that the actual results of the exit polls were deliberately suppressed by the news media especially national TV networks fearing that revealing this data would further dent the image of the Prime Minister who was seeking a third term and possibly sway the election even further from the ruling BJP.
The reports suggest that the real data was suppressed to the benefit of the ruling dispensation in order to keep the invincibility charade going. If true, this means that the media has just failed in its duty as an independent pillar of democracy and has instead, along with the psephologists, taken the country for a jolly ride in a deliberate effort at interfering in the elections and manipulating the stock market.
The role played by the exit pollsters borders on insider trading and market manipulation thus allowing those in the know to make massive bets prior to making the exit poll data public, safe in the knowledge that the market will surge once the data is made public. The least this deserves is a serious inquiry into the role played by the exit polls alongside the media channels to get to the truth behind the manipulation.
The Election Commission also needs to take a decision on whether exit polls should be allowed at all given the potential to skew elections and manipulate the mood of the nation at a time of crucial elections.
