The much-awaited results of elections of four States are in and while votes in Mizoram are expected to be counted tomorrow, the writing is already on the wall for the main contenders in the current elections -- the BJP and the Congress.
For the BJP which won all the three States where it was a serious contender -- Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh -- wresting Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the Congress and retaining Madhya Pradesh in sumptuous fashion -- despite a Congress fight led by old warhorse Kamal Nath expressing confidence that voter disenchantment with the incumbent government would work in his favour.
However, the BJP winning machine that has made winning elections its second nature has proved that being a cold, methodical, and calculating contestant is the only necessary condition for winning elections. The Congress on the other hand cannot seem to retain any State where it has been in power and over the last few years has lost Punjab and now Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
The reasons for the Congress will be debated at length but what is increasingly clear at the initial instance is the Congress through its reliance on old warhorses like Kamal Nath, Digvijay Singh, and Ashok Gehlot among others.
What’s common across these States is that in the Congress unit, there were at least two power centres -- Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan, Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath in MP, Bhupesh Bhagel and T S Singh Deo in Chhattisgarh -- leadership made up of old men clinging on to power and quashing any possibility of young leaders emerging from within the ranks to grow and help the party rejuvenate itself with young leaders.
The party now faces the problem of having to retire its old warhorses but has no young and upcoming leaders whom they can count on -- a situation it faces not just in the States that recently went to elections but also in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and other north Indian States.
The BJP on the other hand has been ruthless in culling those MLAs who have been slacking and in cases where it is evident that public anger has mounted against those MLAs. Replacing those MLAs with fresh faces at the polls -- something that was also tried in Goa, Gujarat and other places -- works wonders for the party as it helps nullify any anti-incumbency that may exist by replacing those MLAs.
The Congress leadership lacks this ruthless streak giving tickets to incumbent MLAs more than any other party perhaps fearful that if sitting MLAs are to be denied tickets they will revolt and upset the applecart damaging the party’s prospects further.
Elections are won booth by booth, constituency by constituency combined with a strong and consistent messaging. The Congress flounders on both fronts. However, one can argue that the party, with its welfare measures and promise of benefits for the poor, where the party flounders in being calculating and ruthless in giving tickets to candidates who will perform -- instead of relying on those who are more likely to show loyalty and deference to the party’s central and State leadership.
The party’s central leadership could do with the expertise that regional parties have in this regard and draw up a constituency-wise plan to defeat the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls -- a long stretch, but still not impossible.
