The Bihar electoral race has taken a new spin. With Lok Janshakti Party moving out of the election, there is now interesting new twist in what otherwise seemed a predictable contest. The LJP announced that it is parting ways, not because of differences with the BJP, but due to ideological differences with another ally JDU. It has even told that there will be no candidates fielded against the saffron brigade and that the LJP will divert all energies towards defeating JDU.
The premise of ideologies clashes is farfetched because both LJP and JDU have been parties of a combined political eco-system. If at all there is re-alignment at this stage, it could only be intended to grab a bigger slice of the pie in the post-election scenario. The dynamics of Bihar politics could, however, put BJP in a spot of a bother because it has to fight the elections along with JDU while also ensuring that friendly opposition LJP doesn't come in the line of fire. This is where the BJP will have to do a final political balancing.
Two NDA allies have been marching out at random, throwing open the debate of party interests and coalition politics. In September, the Shiromani Akali Dal (B) in Punjab, which prided itself as a long-term ally severed ties with the BJP-led NDA due to differences over the farm reforms introduced by the Centre. SAD had a disastrous 2017 elections, and the only way to salvage itself was with a pro-peasant agenda and positioning itself with the vast farming community. Last year, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) became the 16th party to quit the alliance since Narendra Modi first became the prime minister in 2014. AGP cited the adverse effects of the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Assam. The Shiv Sena split ways because the BJP was not ready to concede the leadership position in Maharashtra.
For the smaller players, it's all about political survival and self-interest rather than ideological mismatch or anything else. While the power axis continues to revolve, the focus would shift on players who played second fiddle but have moved out of the NDA group with an agenda of their own, like in Bihar and Punjab. This could well be a make-or-break situation for them.
On the other hand, the NDA which currently enjoys a surplus majority, may not be too bothered about the numbers at this stage because it still has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. However, allies trooping out will hit the goodwill of the NDA and signs of stress in the coalition-building plans of the Modi-Shah combine become visible.
It remains to be seen how friends and foes rally in the run-up to elections and whether smaller parties like LJP succeed in breaking fresh ground and change equations in Bihar.
