MARGAO
The ruling BJP had everything at its disposal in the South Goa Lok Sabha constituency “ as many as 15 MLAs representing 15 out of the total 20 Assembly segments in the constituency. As many as six Cabinet Ministers hail from South Goa and not to mention Chief Minister Pramod Sawant who kept the date with South throughout the fortnight-long campaign, hopping from one segment to another to drum up support for the party.
The party had in its ranks a host of party leaders spread across the constituency, including Speaker of the Goa Legislative Assembly, Ramesh Tawadkar, besides Congress turncoats and Independents, adding strength to the number game.
Unlike the Congress, the BJP had a robust organisation in place, besides a dedicated cadre at its command, which plays a crucial role during election time.
Moreover, resources have never been an issue for the ruling dispensation. In fact, the Congress was no match for the BJP vis-Ã -vis resources, both in terms of manpower and funds.
None other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi descended on the South Goa battle field to drum up support for Pallavi Dempo. On the other hand, local Congress leadership was left to manage the campaign with neither the Gandhis nor any national leader worth its name coming down to Goa to give boost for the party campaign.
Yet, the Lotus simply failed to bloom in South Goa despite a determined and concerted bid by the BJP to regain the seat which the party lost to the Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
Three days after the Congress retained its hold over the South Goa seat, with Captain Viriato winning the election with a 13,535 vote margin, the BJP top brass is on an introspection mode and so are the political analysts, who are on the job to find out the factors or a host of shortfalls which may have contributed to the BJP’s defeat in South Goa.
Minority vote consolidation
Was the BJP leadership found wanting in addressing the concerns of the minorities, and allaying their fears on proposed changes to the Indian Constitution and fears that the 2024 Lok Sabha poll may be the last time the minorities may get the right to exercise their franchise. Or, was there no leader worth its name in the BJP ranks enjoying the trust and confidence amongst the minorities, who could make them listen, more so when some of the top leaders have been involved in labelling the minorities as Portuguese at the drop of a hat.
That’s not all. A senior BJP leader in private conceded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attack against the Muslims, have ended up in polarisation of the strong 50,000-plus Muslim vote in South Goa towards the Congress. Margao segment is a case in point. Migrant basties inhabited by the Muslims voted in large numbers for the Congress this time round.
Captain’s remark on Constitution
The manner in which the BJP tried to capitalise on Captain Viriato’s remark on the Constitution seemed to have not gone down with the minorities. Political observers say the BJP might have gone hammer and thongs against Viriato in a bid to polarise the Hindu vote right ahead of the polls. In the bargain, observers say the BJP campaign to disqualify Viriato and to book him under the Indian Penal Code over his Constitution remark must have ended up in reverse polarisation of the minorities.
BJP’s last minute move to unite warring factions
The BJP leadership went all out to bring warring leaders and groups under one banner in the run up to the May 7 polls. Right from Vasco and Mormugao to Canacona and Ponda taluka, top BJP leaders managed to get the warring leaders together to project a united front. Sources, however, say the BJP leadership will have to do a lot of introspection whether the unity façade really worked for the party in terms of votes or whether it ended up in causing further damage for the party.
INDI Alliance the turning point for Cong
Unlike the BJP, the coming together of the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and the Goa Forward party under the INDIA bloc banner seemed to have paid rich dividends for the Congress candidate. The Alliance helped the Congress avert a split in the non-BJP vote, especially in Salcete and consolidate the minority vote. Observers say the unity façade put up by the partners also managed to puncture the Revolutionary Goans Party and paint the party as the BJP’s B team in Salcete, where the regional outfit had made impressive gains in the 2022 Assembly election.
Failure of defectors, Independents
It’s not even two years since three Congress turncoats, Digambar Kamat, Minister Aleixo Sequeira and Sankalp Amonkar, had all quit the party to embrace the BJP on September 14, 2022. The BJP leadership seemed to have relied on these three turncoats and the Independent MLAs Reginaldo Lourenco and Antonio Vaz to keep the party in good stead at least in the minority areas, without realising that the people were waiting to teach the defectors a befitting lesson. This became clearly evident in Nuvem, where Minister Aleixo Sequeira miserably failed to give the much-needed votes and not to mention Curtorim and Cortalim, where the Independents were shown their place.
Post-June 4, the results have triggered a debate within the ruling dispensation whether it was a wise move by the leadership to reward a Ministerial berth for Aleixo Sequeira and appoint Reginaldo Lourenco as the Chairman of the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) by ignoring claims of other MLAs.
Was candidate’s choice the factor?
The question whether Pallavi Dempo was BJP’s right choice will come to haunt the party leadership for a long time to come, more so when the party rank and file were expecting the leadership to zero in on the candidate amongst local leaders, including ex-MP Narendra Sawaikar, ex-Dy CM Chandrakant Kavlekar and former MLA Damu Naik. Did the choice of candidate not only leave a section of the cadre hurt and angry, but has also brought to the fore question whether the party did not take into account the social engineering aspect before zeroing in on the candidate is expected to come to the fore during the introspection over the poll debacle.
Over emphasis on PM Modi vs local issues
The BJP leadership literally made the 2024 election as an election to bring Prime Minister Narendra Modi back to power for the third time. Right from CM Pramod Sawant to party candidate Pallavi Dempo and leaders sought votes in the name of Modi. In the bargain, local issues took a backseat, which, however, were highlighted and exploited by the INDIA bloc and candidate Captain Viriato Fernandes to the hilt.
Salcete vs Hinterland
In the end, minority-dominated Salcete gave the much-needed lead, around 62,839 vote lead for Captain Viriato, as the taluka stood like a rock behind the INDIA bloc. No doubt, the BJP polled impressive votes in the eight hinterland segments, but the lead secured wasn’t enough to offset Captain Viriato’s huge gains in Salcete, leaving Pallavi Dempo stranded at the finishing line by around 13,535 vote.
