PANAJI
The ensuing Lok Sabha election on May 7 in the North Goa seat where Union minister Shripad Naik will be seeking a sixth term and will face former Union minister Ramakant Khalap, is gaining interest not just over the Naik v/s Khalap battle but also for the behind the scenes turf wars of State and assembly constituency level political satraps and wannabe aspirants.
One region where political pundits are keenly watching for such battles within the big battle for the North Goa seat among local politicians and stalwarts is the Tiswadi taluka which accounts for five assembly segments -- Taleigao, Panaji, St Cruz, St Andre and Cumbharjua. And the one politician from this region on whom most eyes will be focused on is none other than Revenue Minister Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate.
PANAJI & TALEIGAO
In Panaji, which he represents since 2019, Monserrate will have little to worry in terms of delivering maximum electoral dividend to BJP’s Naik. For, his principal opponent in the capital, the late Parrikar’s son Utpal, will be on the same side as he has publicly made it known that he is on the side of Narendra Modi-led BJP.
Just like Panaji, in Taleigao too the sailing for the Babush-Jennifer duo is unlikely to pose much challenge as the Congress which ended up runner-up lacks an organisation there.
Former CCP Mayor Tony Rodrigues, who was the candidate against Jennifer in the 2022 assembly elections has not shown much enthusiasm or presence in Taleigao’s political arena since then. Khalap therefore may be forced to bank on INDIA bloc ally AAP set up there.
However, Monserrate has long set sights on a larger canvas for himself in State politics than merely being a strongman in Panaji and Taleigao (represented by his wife Jennifer). This Lok Sabha poll may give him the opportunity to position himself for it by playing a role in all five seats of Tiswadi and he will grab it, a political analyst said.
In fact in the run-up to the 2022 assembly elections, Monserrate had more often than once publicly stated that he would deliver five out of five seats for the BJP in Tiswadi. He ended up delivering just two - his own Panaji by a whisker and his wife’s Taleigao seat again by a thinner margin than in the past.
But dominating the whole of Tiswadi electorally in the May 7 Lok Sabha elections, may not be as easy as it was for him in winning Taleigao for his wife or struggling to win Panaji for himself against the spirited fight of Parrikar Junior.
CUMBHARJUA
For, unlike in Taleigao and Panaji, neither Monserrate nor his BJP have any stranglehold on the balance three seats of the taluka -- St Cruz, St Andre and Cumbharjua. The last named used to be the pocket borough of former minister Pandurang Madkaikar and won by the BJP only when he was lured over into the saffron fold in 2017.
Although a friend of Monserrate’s, the ailing and politically sulking Madkaikar and his political ecosystem in Cumbharjua will need more than just ‘friendship’ to be enthused enough to throw his lot with the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. Further, with Shripad Naik’s son Siddesh, who is chairperson of North Goa Zilla Panchayat, eying the constituency, which way Madkaikar could lean on May 7 is anybody’s guess.
ST CRUZ
Move over to St Cruz. It was a seat that Monserrate represented for a term in 2012-17. But he managed to pull off that difficult win against current MLA Rudolf Fernandes then an independent and the MGP’s Dinar Tarcar only because he was the Congress candidate. Five years later in 2017, he played a role in former MLA, Antonio Fernandes winning but he too was the Congress candidate.
St Cruz has been loyal to the Congress since its arrival on Goa’s political scene and to the United Goans (UG) prior to that. The two times that the Congress lost here was when the seat was won by Independents -- Francisco Branco (Baschick) in 1984 and a decade later in 1994 by Victoria Fernandes (Mummy). Notably, the Congress candidate has secured leads in this segment even in past Lok Sabha elections.
It would therefore be a miracle if Monserrate influences the electorate of St Cruz to favour BJP’s Shripad Naik on May 7, even if the current MLA Rudolf Fernandes is on the same side. For INDIA bloc alliance’s Congress candidate Ramakant Khalap, however, getting the act together on the ground is an imperative. How AAP’s State Convenor Amit Palekar and Congress’ ZP Member Shiny Oliveira team up in the 26 days to the polls will define whether Khalap comes up trumps there.
ST ANDRE
Tiswadi’s fifth seat of St Andre adds a third dimension to this Lok Sabha elections BJP v/s Congress duopoly as it is represented by Revolutionary Goans Party’s (RGP) Viresh Borkar whose party president Manoj Parab is also throwing his hat in the ring. The scenario makes it all the more complex for Monserrate and the BJP to dominate the segment and garner support for Naik.
Former MLA Francisco Silveira could potentially add muscle to the election machine but sources within say the activity of former Panaji MLA, Siddharth Kuncolienkar in the constituency has made him wary of his future in the saffron fold.
FRONT FOOT
The Congress and INDIA bloc have no choice but to play it on the front foot as the battle for Tiswadi within the larger war for North Goa gains momentum. Only June 4 will tell who gains and who loses, not just between the BJP’s Naik and Congress’ Khalap but others players like Monserrate as well.
