PANAJI
A new study by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), a Bangalore-based think tank, emphasises the urgent need to build climate resilience in western India.
Titled ‘District-Level Changes in Climate: Historical Climate and Climate Change Projections for the Western States of India,’ the study indicates changes in climate patterns that are likely to occur in the western States of India -- Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan over the next three decades, compared to the historical period (1990“2019).
The study analysed two representative scenarios: moderate emissions and high emissions. CSTEP’s study indicates a warmer and wetter future for Goa.
“Our study provides an understanding of the historical climate and climate projections for the 2030s. To cope with a changing climate and the cascading impacts, planners and decision-makers must start preparing action plans that consider future climate risks. Building climate resilience is a ‘win-win’ strategy that can deliver multiple benefits, while saving the future cost of loss and damage, thereby ensuring preparedness,” said Dr Indu K Murthy, head of the Climate, Energy and Sustainability sector at CSTEP.
The highlights from the study for Goa were based on the historical climate. The analysis of historical temperature (1990“2019) in Goa indicates moderate warming in both summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. The temperature during summer has increased by 0.10C to 0.650C and winter by 0.240C to 0.450C. So, the projected climate will be warmer. Both summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures are projected to warm by 1°C to 2°C in Goa, compared to the historical period, even under the moderate emissions scenario.
The rainfall during the historical period also shows an increase. Historically (1990“2019), temperature and rainfall have increased, and rainfall variability is high across all the western States. This trend is projected to continue from 2021 to 2050. The increase is by 20% during the monsoon months from June to September. The study indicates an overall increase in the number of high-intensity (51“100 mm/day) and very high-intensity (>100 mm/day) rainfall in the next three decades compared to the historical period. Under the high emissions scenario, the increase is by 3 to 22 days with the maximum increase projected in Goa. Rainfall deficient years are projected to predominantly decline in a majority of the districts of the west. Both Kharif and Rabi season rainfall is projected to increase in all the districts of western India compared to the last 30 years. The projected hike in the Kharif season rainfall is by 1-33% under the moderate emissions scenario and 3-34% under the high emissions scenario. The Rabi season rainfall is projected to spike by 3-57% under the moderate emissions scenario and 13-81% under the high emissions scenario.
The number of rainy days is projected to double in North Goa and South Goa, compared to the historical period, even under the moderate emissions scenario. The rainfall is projected to rise but variability will decrease during both Kharif and Rabi seasons, compared to the historical period, even under the moderate emissions scenario. A larger upsurge in rainfall by 12% is projected during the Rabi season in both districts.
