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As Goa inches towards the next election which is due in February-March next year, voter-preferences seem to crystalise. Between August and now the political party has become supreme while quality of the candidate has taken second place
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MOOD OF THE STATE - II ---------------------------------------
The second survey conducted by The Goan Everyday, Goan Varta and Prudent Media early this month has shown that the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor might see the BJP-led collation return to power in 2017.
Although anti-incumbency factor against the government was around 70 percentage points, five points higher than in August when the first Mood of the State Survey was conducted, the opposition was unable to cash in on this resentment. Hence there is a strong perception that the BJP would form government in 2017.
In August, when the mood was decisively in favour of single parties, around 28.6 per cent of the voters had a clear preference for a ‘Congress Only’ government, with the BJP coming in second with 21.78 per cent.
This mood has undergone a change and in October and the percentage of voters who would like to see a ‘BJP Only’ government has shot up to 41.8 percent, while the Congress’ fortunes have dropped to 28.5 percent. The general feeling is that the Congress has not succeeded in projecting itself as a political party which can win the election and this has given the BJP a huge boost.
Interestingly, the Aam Aadmi Party, which is projecting itself as an alternative to the BJP had the support of 13.61 per cent of the voters in August. Since then it has announced the names of candidates in around 15 constituencies. But despite getting off the blocks first, its chances have dipped with only 7.4 per cent of the voters preferring it a party to form government.
At this stage no one seems to believe a Congress-led coalition is a possibility with only 2.7 per cent of the voters rooting for it, a drop of nearly seven per cent.
Of the first 13 constituencies being presented today, the BJP won nine in 2012. Survey results show that eight of its MLAs are safe with only Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar on the borderline with a 50:50 chance of winning. The biggest factor impeding Parsekar’s jump to the safe zone is the determination of the BBSM to defeat him. However, fragmentation of the opposition will work to his advantage.
The BJP appears to be safe in Panaji for now, but the equation is expected to undergo a change since Babush Monserrate has announced his willingness to contest from the capital.
Monserrate continues to remain unsafe in St Cruz and the only change that can help him is if he aligns with the BJP-MGP combine.
As Goa inches towards the next election which is due in February-March next year, voter-preferences seem to crystalise. Between August and now the political party has become supreme while quality of the candidate has taken second place. In August, when voters were asked the key elements that would go into deciding which candidate gets their vote, 55 per cent said the quality of the candidate came first with 23 per cent rooting for the political party and 18 per cent for past performance of the MLA.
In October, around 32.6 per cent, the highest said the political party was important with the quality of the candidate taking second place with 21 per cent. Past performance of the candidate came in third but with an increase in two points to 20 per cent.
The survey showed huge shifts in voter expectation of their MLAs between August and October. While ‘jobs’ continues to be on top of the agenda, three other factors seem to be gaining ground “ financial or personal help, getting work done in offices and raising local issues in the Assembly.
