Strategy in Lok Sabha polls paid off, but past local poll defeats expose the cost of division in Salcete
Captain Viriato Fernandes’ Lok Sabha win in 2024 signalled potential opposition cohesion; the upcoming Zilla Panchayat elections will test if this unity can be sustained.
MARGAO
"United we stand, divided we fall" – This was the rallying cry that united the non-BJP forces, particularly in Salcete, to deliver an unassailable lead for the Congress party in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, ultimately paving the way for Captain Viriato Fernandes’ victory.
Buoyed by this success, leaders of opposition parties — including the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, and Goa Forward — have gone public, declaring that the only way to dislodge the BJP in Goa is through unity among non-BJP forces to prevent a split in votes.
The Goa Legislative Assembly elections are about 15 months away, and it’s still premature to predict the possible alignments and realignments in the run-up to the polls.
More immediately, the Zilla Panchayat (ZP) elections — contested on party lines — are scheduled for November–December. These polls present a formidable challenge to the opposition: can they prevent the BJP from continuing its decade-long dominance in the ZP elections?
The acid test for the opposition lies in their ability to honour public sentiment, which strongly favours unity among non-BJP parties to effectively counter the ruling dispensation.
This issue gains particular significance in Salcete, where nine out of the 25 ZP seats are up for grabs. Recent political moves suggest each of the non-BJP parties seems focused on consolidating its individual base, especially in Salcete.
Past election outcomes, however, serve as a stark reminder: the 2020 ZP polls and the 2022 Davorlim ZP by-election revealed that a divided non-BJP vote played a critical role in their own defeat — enabling the BJP to retain control over the South Goa ZP seat.
With the ZP elections just two months away, the central question remains: will the non-BJP parties finally learn from past mistakes and unite to respect the public sentiment? Or will history repeat itself, allowing the BJP to retain its stronghold through a divided opposition?
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2020 ZP results a cautionary tale for divided opposition
In the 2020 elections for the South Goa Zilla Panchayat (ZP), the Congress could secure only three of the nine seats in Salcete. The BJP (Lotus) emerged victorious in two seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) bagged one seat each. Three seats went to Independents.
The outcome was telling: the fragmented opposition failed to reach the halfway mark of 13 seats needed to form the South Goa ZP, enabling the BJP to retain power once again.
The key reason? The non-BJP parties chose to contest the 2020 polls under their respective banners, leading to a split in anti-BJP votes. This division proved decisive, particularly in Guirdolim (Cuncolim constituency) and Davorlim (Navelim constituency), where the BJP's victories were made possible by the fractured non-BJP vote between Congress, AAP, and other players.
A similar pattern repeated in the 2022 Davorlim by-election, necessitated after ZP member Ulhas Tuemkar was elected MLA from Navelim. The non-BJP parties collectively polled 5,807 votes, while the BJP candidate secured 3,374 votes — yet again winning, thanks to a divided opposition. AAP finished second, pushing Congress to third place.
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Split opposition vote undermines Congress as AAP gains ground
MARGAO: The 2020 South Goa Zilla Panchayat election was a landmark moment for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party. For the first time, AAP opened its electoral account in Goa with a win in the Benaulim ZP constituency.
For the Congress, however, the same election underscored the beginning of a new challenge. AAP’s emergence in Salcete — traditionally a Congress bastion — resulted in a significant erosion of Congress’s vote share. Struggling to win even three seats, the party saw several losses directly attributed to a split in the non-BJP vote bank.
With the November–December 2025 ZP polls on the horizon, AAP is reportedly gearing up for an aggressive campaign across Salcete, aiming to maximise its seat tally. In addition to winning Benaulim, AAP polled crucial vote shares in constituencies like Colva, Raia, Guirdolim, and Davorlim — enough to disrupt Congress’s prospects.
Take Colva, for instance: the Congress lost the seat to the NCP by just 75 votes. However, AAP polled 1,431 votes — a number that clearly tilted the balance. Had the opposition vote been consolidated, the result might have been different, sources said.
In Davorlim, BJP's Ulhas Tuemkar retained the ZP seat with 3,610 votes. However, the non-BJP vote was split among five candidates, effectively handing the seat to the BJP on a platter.
Bye-polls for the Davorlim ZP seat in 2022 saw a virtual repeat of the 2020 election result. While the BJP candidate had polled 3,374 votes, the non-BJP parties had all polled 5,807 votes, with AAP finishing the race in second position by relegating the Congress to third spot.
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Guirdolim ZP contest in focus as AAP enters Yuri’s home turf
MARGAO: Against the backdrop of the Aam Aadmi Party’s entry into Cuncolim, the home turf of Leader of Opposition Yuri Alemao, and with an eye on the upcoming Zilla Panchayat polls, the Guirdolim Zilla Panchayat seat has come into sharp focus.
In 2020, the BJP shocked many by winning the Guirdolim seat, prompting the party to claim that even villages like Chandor and Guirdolim — known for their role in the anti-coal agitation — had begun supporting the saffron brigade.
But on closer scrutiny, the BJP’s win was less a political shift and more a product of vote arithmetic. Two factors contributed to BJP’s victory in Guirdolim: party stronghold in Balli village, part of the ZP constituency, where the BJP retained its core voter base.
Secondly, the split in the non-BJP vote proved decisive in a triangular contest. BJP candidate Sanjana Velip won the seat with 4,690 votes, defeating Congress’s Sonia Fernandes, who polled 4,097 votes — a margin of just 593. Meanwhile, AAP’s Rodolfina Vaz secured 996 votes, which, according to sources, critically undermined Congress’s chances.
